China doesn’t want a neutral Taiwan. Their political culture doesn’t accept compromise. Their goal is running Taiwan as part of the PRC. They won’t accept anything less. This is their goal not because of practicality. It’s ideological- they see capturing Taiwan as vital to maintaining the tottering legitimacy of the CCP.
True. In that case Taiwan is cooked. Because if they are unwilling to accept a neutral Taiwan and have the means to forcibly reunite, then logically that would happen at some point.
However, just as the soldier must always be courageous, the diplomat must always be optimistic. A neutral Taiwan, coupled with whatever deterrence we can muster up, could delay invasion for far longer than an adversarial Taiwan with a similar level of deterrence.
A neutral Taiwan is a good idea. Let's be honest. The main reason why China continues to hold on to the Shanghai Agreement is the fear that the US could turn an independent Tawain into an unsafe bridgehead against China. China has never been an imperialist country.
Interesting argument, but it is exceedingly unlikely the DDP would do anything as politically risky as this. There is also the uncertainty of whether it's possible to improve the relationship with China without moving substantively toward unification since Xi has removed the timeline ambiguity that historically allowed everyone some leeway. Trump also cares deeply about popular, like all narcissists do, and he uses the stock market as a gauge of his popularity, so I wouldn't assume Trump to be unwaivering from the current trajectory.
It’s so curious to me that people are worried that diplomacy will move us towards unification when it seems so clear that China is rapidly amassing the means to force reunification. There is a saying in Taiwan: “the dead pig isn’t afraid of scalding water.” Translation: If you are cooked anyhow, you might as well try something different.
As the US western alliance gives way to multiple major powers providing security, friendly and neutral regimes need to be established around the major powers. To reliably project power China needs a friendly China Sea. Taiwan is a historic part of China so formally any lessening of tensions should retain the framework of one china and be subject to agreement of people in both China and Taiwan. Negotiated pragmatically I think your proposal is a positive step toward lowering the tension and constructing a strong relationship between Taiwan and China.
Interesting piece. Of course the recommendation relies on the premise that Taiwan’s behavior affects the probability of China invading. I wouldn’t be too sure unfortunately.
Trump is totally transactional and the only thing he cares about is making a deal favourable to him. If security for Taiwan is part of the deal he will renege on that part if China threatens and attacks. He will not honor securing Taiwan as part of the deal. So, Taiwan is totally cooked, possibly more so than Ukraine, because it is "so far away" as you say. BTW, you could get a job writing for Trump! That sounds exactly like what he would say. I am just hoping Americans get sick enough, fast enough, and he makes an impeachable mistake so he can go down in history as being impeached for the 3rd time. This time, there is a chance the US Senate would agree.
台独has conveniently forgotten Kissinger’s warning that “it’s FATAL to a friend of America”. Neither ASMC or TSMC will be irrelevant soon as China LEAPFROG over the West on technology. After all, Chinese Engineers ( brought up by Tiger Moms) will FOREVER OUT-smart Chinese Engineers in America or Taiwan. America has forgotten that CHINESE ENGINEERS in America built the entire semiconductor industry, in the first place, and ALL the BEST Chinese Engineers are in CHINA, including many returnees from America who felt betrayed by America. Tough 💩 Taiwan.
There is a far better way to accommodate America and that is by not supporting the authoritarian regime in Brazil. Perhaps that is a big part of the motivation behind Trump’s tactics. To understand this aspect, listen to PBD’s guest, at around the 10 or 12 minute time stamp: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4UJ8cY0rNwXRou7fdVUhtB?si=0NSEYbeCShC_eU_g5ULR4Q
China doesn’t want a neutral Taiwan. Their political culture doesn’t accept compromise. Their goal is running Taiwan as part of the PRC. They won’t accept anything less. This is their goal not because of practicality. It’s ideological- they see capturing Taiwan as vital to maintaining the tottering legitimacy of the CCP.
True. In that case Taiwan is cooked. Because if they are unwilling to accept a neutral Taiwan and have the means to forcibly reunite, then logically that would happen at some point.
However, just as the soldier must always be courageous, the diplomat must always be optimistic. A neutral Taiwan, coupled with whatever deterrence we can muster up, could delay invasion for far longer than an adversarial Taiwan with a similar level of deterrence.
A neutral Taiwan is a good idea. Let's be honest. The main reason why China continues to hold on to the Shanghai Agreement is the fear that the US could turn an independent Tawain into an unsafe bridgehead against China. China has never been an imperialist country.
Love "Trumps tweet".
Interesting argument, but it is exceedingly unlikely the DDP would do anything as politically risky as this. There is also the uncertainty of whether it's possible to improve the relationship with China without moving substantively toward unification since Xi has removed the timeline ambiguity that historically allowed everyone some leeway. Trump also cares deeply about popular, like all narcissists do, and he uses the stock market as a gauge of his popularity, so I wouldn't assume Trump to be unwaivering from the current trajectory.
It’s so curious to me that people are worried that diplomacy will move us towards unification when it seems so clear that China is rapidly amassing the means to force reunification. There is a saying in Taiwan: “the dead pig isn’t afraid of scalding water.” Translation: If you are cooked anyhow, you might as well try something different.
As the US western alliance gives way to multiple major powers providing security, friendly and neutral regimes need to be established around the major powers. To reliably project power China needs a friendly China Sea. Taiwan is a historic part of China so formally any lessening of tensions should retain the framework of one china and be subject to agreement of people in both China and Taiwan. Negotiated pragmatically I think your proposal is a positive step toward lowering the tension and constructing a strong relationship between Taiwan and China.
Interesting piece. Of course the recommendation relies on the premise that Taiwan’s behavior affects the probability of China invading. I wouldn’t be too sure unfortunately.
Trump is totally transactional and the only thing he cares about is making a deal favourable to him. If security for Taiwan is part of the deal he will renege on that part if China threatens and attacks. He will not honor securing Taiwan as part of the deal. So, Taiwan is totally cooked, possibly more so than Ukraine, because it is "so far away" as you say. BTW, you could get a job writing for Trump! That sounds exactly like what he would say. I am just hoping Americans get sick enough, fast enough, and he makes an impeachable mistake so he can go down in history as being impeached for the 3rd time. This time, there is a chance the US Senate would agree.
台独has conveniently forgotten Kissinger’s warning that “it’s FATAL to a friend of America”. Neither ASMC or TSMC will be irrelevant soon as China LEAPFROG over the West on technology. After all, Chinese Engineers ( brought up by Tiger Moms) will FOREVER OUT-smart Chinese Engineers in America or Taiwan. America has forgotten that CHINESE ENGINEERS in America built the entire semiconductor industry, in the first place, and ALL the BEST Chinese Engineers are in CHINA, including many returnees from America who felt betrayed by America. Tough 💩 Taiwan.
There is a far better way to accommodate America and that is by not supporting the authoritarian regime in Brazil. Perhaps that is a big part of the motivation behind Trump’s tactics. To understand this aspect, listen to PBD’s guest, at around the 10 or 12 minute time stamp: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4UJ8cY0rNwXRou7fdVUhtB?si=0NSEYbeCShC_eU_g5ULR4Q
Sorry I”m not going to listen to all that. Can you explain again what Brazil has to do with Taiwan?
You’re not going to listen to a 5 minute clip from where I give you the time stamp? Okay.