Today’s Ukraine, Tomorrow’s Taiwan?

What should Taiwan say to America’s increasingly hardline demand for chip tech transfer as another ally is cashiered?

“Dictator!” “No, you are!”

Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place. America’s shocking about-face on Ukraine inevitably triggers the thought that one day it might be Taiwan that has the rug pulled out from under it in a future conflict with China. If that happens, and Donald Trump is still the president, I have a feeling I know just exactly what he is going to tweet:

“A small island, thousands of miles away, and we’ve been paying BILLIONS to protect them while getting NOTHING in return.

Believe me folks, they stole our chips and they had this coming. It’s only thanks to TRUMP that we got as much of it back as we did. But you don’t have to worry. We blew TSMC up on the way out and they won’t be making any chips for CHYNA!

Goodbye to TSMC. Say hello to ASMC. We are going to make the world’s best chips. Xi is very smart, very tough—he’s doing what he thinks is best for China. Lyin’ Lai is very weak. No match for Xi. He thought Uncle Sam was going to bail him out? NO DEAL!”

I mean, given what he just tweeted out a few days ago about Ukraine, I don’t think you can call me paranoid.

I’ve been told over and over again by our government to look out for Chinese cognitive warfare seeking to sow doubt in the intention of the United States to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Well, unless the SeeSeePee somehow got a hold of Trump’s socials, I’d say the best argument for skepticism in America is coming from the Commander in Chief himself.

So the question is, what is Taiwan going to do about it in order to put “Taiwan First,” to steal a phrase from Trump? The pressure on Taiwan to not just build more chip plants in the US but to start a joint-venture with Intel that will see Taiwan’s cutting-edge semiconductor technology transferred to the US. If reports are true, this is Trump asking Taiwan to offer up the crown jewel of our technology up on a platter, and install it in the US with our money since TSMC will be asked to invest in the JV.

It’s amazing how many supporters of Taiwan (Democracy! Boba!) peel off and become gimlet-eyed realists when the chips are down.

Et tu, Noah?

It comes as no surprise that a large majority of people in Taiwan strongly disagree. They know very well what’s going on: we are being squeezed and extorted. Despite the geopolitical pressures that would inevitably be brought to bear, now is the time to say “no” to America. After giving up our top tech would be too late.

It is possible that the US could try and force our hand by playing hardball with our supply chains. If that happens, there’s another near-peer power to our west President Lai can call. What, Trump can call Putin and the rest of the world aren’t supposed to shop around for better deals?

Many of you might be shocked that I would say this. But the cruel reality is right in front of us. The Chinese Communist Party might well be our enemy now, but increasingly it is not so certain that the United States will be our friend forever.

Rolling up the Franchise

You can credibly argue that a US abandonment of Ukraine doesn’t mean a US abandonment of Taiwan is in the cards. After all, it’s true that the Asia Pacific area is a lot more “core” to the US’ interests than Europe. China is the near-peer competitor, not Russia, and the Europeans are rich enough to get it together and hold down the fort on that front in any case. But lose Taiwan and all of Asia will fall under China’s sphere of influence. There goes America’s global top dog status, so the theory goes.

But while I’m sure there are many in Trump’s administration that sincerely believes in a “pivot in Asia,” there is another theory out there that Trump is trying to get out of the global hegemony game altogether.

What previous presidents saw as America’s greatest assets — our alliances and ownership of global institutions — Trump sees as expensive liabilities. Not that Trump doesn’t want to keep America the most powerful country in the world, but he no longer sees geopolitical stewardship as a profitable way to do that. Imagine a new CEO taking over a franchise and wanting to shut down all the retail locations to do online-only.

Strongly influenced by his techworld advisors like Elon Musk, it’s not inconceivable that Trump can be persuaded to put all his eggs in the AI basket and make sure America is dominant there while letting the world fall geopolitically into three spheres of influence: American, Chinese and Russian. His “Monroe Doctrine Plus” emphasis on consolidating power in America’s backyard — Canada, Panama, Greenland — only bolsters this theory.

If the US is on its way to a full-scale strategic withdrawal, deterrence across the Taiwan Straits just went down. By a lot. But so far President Lai Ching-te seems determined not to respond with any new ideas, instead he’s still trying to calm the troops with bland bromides.

Keep Calm and Buy More US LNG

“I hope that everyone will interpret Trump's new policies as a positive opportunity for Taiwan. The governing team will make all necessary preparations, treating the impacts as opportunities to face the new challenges of a new era. In the future, procurement and investments from the U.S. will be strengthened, with efforts to deepen, intensify, and broaden in all aspects.”

This is in line with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) longtime policy of focusing on its internal enemies rather than the external ones. If this doesn’t make sense to you, let me explain.

The Frog that refuse to be boiled

It’s 2025 so I hope this isn’t too controversial to say: China has built its military up to such a degree that it’s unlikely for Taiwan…even with the help of the US…to win an outright victory. Instead, the game has become deterrence. Convince China that it doesn’t want to do this because it will get a bloody nose…the bloodiest of noses. Taiwan is crafting a scrappy, defiant identity, rallying around sovereignty as a non-negotiable value. Spending more on defense. Porcupining up.

This is aligned with the US “Boiling Moat” strategy, which seeks to spackle the Taiwan Straits with enough drones and munition that it becomes too costly for China to cross. Denying China an easy win, so the theory goes, will make invading Taiwan no longer worth-it for China.

The problem with this plan is that China’s vast military buildup have already…how should we say this…“triggered practicality” in the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Although they won’t come out and admit it outright, their relatively accommodationist stance towards China is rooted not in a sudden remembrance that we are family on both sides of the strait but a grim belief that Taiwan would be the loser in any direct confrontation. As China turns up the temperature, the KMT is ready to jump out of the pot.

If Lai’s calculation is that China can be deterred from attacking in the first place, then the greatest threat to Taiwan would be the dumbasses who want to pre-emptively surrender. This is why every time there is yet another wave of military exercises from China encircling Taiwan in increasingly creative ways, it’s the Pan-Green media will always play it down. They realize that if the threat of invasion ever become too real to the people, their morale might crack.

It also mean Taiwan have lost any geopolitical elasticity to “balance” between the US and China. In order to credibly claim we will respond with maximum deterrence in the case of a Chinese attack, Taiwan must signal resolve and play up its international support. It’s an absolutist posture that is impossible to maintain while hedging diplomatically with China.

As US reliability goes down, Lai must know that his situation has worsened. Yet his strategy demands that he can never acknowledge this fact.

Can Taiwan find its agency?

What does Taiwan’s sovereignty actually mean? For the ruling DPP, it seems to mean fete-ing has-been politician to come and say “Taiwan is a country” while preparing to hand over more of our semiconductor technology to our most important ally. In the face of reality in the Trump administration, President Lai makes himself ridiculous when he waxes on about Taiwan’s sovereignty, our great relationship with the United States and other like-minded democracy stuff.

My advice to President Lai if he’s able to take it is to worry less about sovereignty and more about agency. He doesn’t even realize it, but he is in a position of extraordinary opportunity to improve Taiwan’s position.

China would welcome a sincere overture from him now. We have a common problem in Trump…let’s not forget Taiwanese chipmaker lost a lot of business when they couldn’t sell to China anymore. How can we most be useful to them?

Creating room to cooperate with China doesn’t decrease our sovereignty. In actually increases it. Cordiality with China and dialing down the temperature cross-strait decreases our dependence on the United States and protect our businesses from geopolitical blackmail. In the long run, a neutral Republic of China (Taiwan) at the heart of Asia is probably the greatest gift possible to regional security.

It should be in everybody’s best interest to keep it that way. But Great Powers being what they are it won’t happen on its own. Taiwan has to take the lead in creating that neutrality and then the responsibility in keeping the balance. Given domestic politics, I think Lai is in the best position to do it. A KMT leader is assumed to be secretly pro-China. The Taiwanese people can trust the DPP’s loyalty to Taiwan’s continued autonomy.

If President Lai is still confused, I have a book recommendation for him. It’s called “The Art of the Deal.”