I still remember the Before times when I used to be a bright-eyed cheerleader for the dangerous idea that “Taiwan is a country.” It seemed so self-evident as a goal to strive for in order to achieve our long-term security.
I agree with your sentiment Angelica, but I think it’s not either or. Both can and should be done at once.
On the one hand making all the diplomatic efforts that Taiwan can, ensuring Taiwan has as many allies in the world as possible. Soft power does matter. The allied countries may indeed end up strengthening Taiwan’s defense. The DPP governments have been doing quite well on this front.
And also on the other hand greatly strenghtening both energy abundance and security, and the whole taiwanse defense apparatus. Efforts have been made by Tsai Ing Wen (yay to the new submarine!) but so much more needs to be done.
I totally agree we should do both. But not all diplomacy is created equal and I believe the IPAC doesn’t bring much further gains.
Our military is not in good shape and while I don’t think the submarine is a minus it’s been a troubled project and no less a personage than retired admiral Li hsi-min doubts they will be a difference maker.
Taiwan is fairly wealthy and technologically advanced. What would it look like to engage in serious commercial/technical/military collaboration? South Korea and Poland recently entered a very serious production partnership last year.
I agree Taiwan has no choice but to put big energy into self-manufactured arms. We are buying second-quality for top dollar from the US while others just won’t sell us anything.
This is why I’m frustrated by feel-good diplomacy. It’s nice for those lawmakers to drop by. Is that translating to arm sales/collaborations? None that I can see.
An additional comment from a reader who wishes to be anonymous: “ There was a time, pre-Covid, when a minority but still significant and important thesis for debate on this issue was "PRC doesn't want to use force to compel unification," consequently "Taiwan/the West should avoid actions that give PRC a reason to view force as their only option." Collectively Taiwan/the West is losing sight of that latter point.
This is not to say Taiwan/the West should appease Beijing. Just don't stupidly antagonize.
I absolutely agree with you that Taipei hosting an IPAC event at which President Lai gives a key address is nothing more than a feel-good global brunch event and absolute folly that doesn't advance Taiwan's security.
One quibble with your comment to Edouard that the submarine is not a minus. It is. One of the many lessons from Ukraine is the "brutal math" of high intensity peer competition warfare. Taiwan cannot afford single-use defense budget swallowing prestige platforms. Taiwan needs to be a porcupine armed with an abundance of simple point and shoot defensive weapons (ATGMs, shoulder fired SAMs) that a hastily mobilized reserve force can immediately put to use on the beaches, highways, and helicopter landing zones that the PLA would need to assault and advance along. It also needs an abundance of UUVs to sink troop laden PLA Navy ships in the shallow strait and surf. Not a blue water warfare submarine with little chance of surviving its mission and even less chance of returning to base, rearming, and getting a second shot at subsequent waves of troop carriers.
All of which emphasizes another reason why now is not the time to stupidly antagonize Beijing. Western defense industrial capacity is at its limit. With an ongoing war in Ukraine and on the eve of a potential second high intensity regional Middle East conflict, there is simply not enough Western munitions to aid Taiwan now.”
Interesting point about the submarine. I don’t know too much about it beyond the fact that a naval engineer working on the project told me off the record the design needs major rework but the government is going straight into batch production.
In Chinese history, Taiwan is the umpteenth province to declare independence. Everyone knows the script and everyone's keeping to it. I think it's cute, to be honest, and it energizes the masses without doing much harm.
I agree with your sentiment Angelica, but I think it’s not either or. Both can and should be done at once.
On the one hand making all the diplomatic efforts that Taiwan can, ensuring Taiwan has as many allies in the world as possible. Soft power does matter. The allied countries may indeed end up strengthening Taiwan’s defense. The DPP governments have been doing quite well on this front.
And also on the other hand greatly strenghtening both energy abundance and security, and the whole taiwanse defense apparatus. Efforts have been made by Tsai Ing Wen (yay to the new submarine!) but so much more needs to be done.
Both can and should be done at the same time.
I totally agree we should do both. But not all diplomacy is created equal and I believe the IPAC doesn’t bring much further gains.
Our military is not in good shape and while I don’t think the submarine is a minus it’s been a troubled project and no less a personage than retired admiral Li hsi-min doubts they will be a difference maker.
Taiwan is fairly wealthy and technologically advanced. What would it look like to engage in serious commercial/technical/military collaboration? South Korea and Poland recently entered a very serious production partnership last year.
I agree Taiwan has no choice but to put big energy into self-manufactured arms. We are buying second-quality for top dollar from the US while others just won’t sell us anything.
This is why I’m frustrated by feel-good diplomacy. It’s nice for those lawmakers to drop by. Is that translating to arm sales/collaborations? None that I can see.
An additional comment from a reader who wishes to be anonymous: “ There was a time, pre-Covid, when a minority but still significant and important thesis for debate on this issue was "PRC doesn't want to use force to compel unification," consequently "Taiwan/the West should avoid actions that give PRC a reason to view force as their only option." Collectively Taiwan/the West is losing sight of that latter point.
This is not to say Taiwan/the West should appease Beijing. Just don't stupidly antagonize.
I absolutely agree with you that Taipei hosting an IPAC event at which President Lai gives a key address is nothing more than a feel-good global brunch event and absolute folly that doesn't advance Taiwan's security.
One quibble with your comment to Edouard that the submarine is not a minus. It is. One of the many lessons from Ukraine is the "brutal math" of high intensity peer competition warfare. Taiwan cannot afford single-use defense budget swallowing prestige platforms. Taiwan needs to be a porcupine armed with an abundance of simple point and shoot defensive weapons (ATGMs, shoulder fired SAMs) that a hastily mobilized reserve force can immediately put to use on the beaches, highways, and helicopter landing zones that the PLA would need to assault and advance along. It also needs an abundance of UUVs to sink troop laden PLA Navy ships in the shallow strait and surf. Not a blue water warfare submarine with little chance of surviving its mission and even less chance of returning to base, rearming, and getting a second shot at subsequent waves of troop carriers.
All of which emphasizes another reason why now is not the time to stupidly antagonize Beijing. Western defense industrial capacity is at its limit. With an ongoing war in Ukraine and on the eve of a potential second high intensity regional Middle East conflict, there is simply not enough Western munitions to aid Taiwan now.”
Interesting point about the submarine. I don’t know too much about it beyond the fact that a naval engineer working on the project told me off the record the design needs major rework but the government is going straight into batch production.
What exactly are you protesting here, that Lai Ching-Te wants to discuss Taiwan's defense with its allies?
Defense? Did they talk about arm sales to Taiwan? No. They relitigated UN 2758. Its a dead letter.
In Chinese history, Taiwan is the umpteenth province to declare independence. Everyone knows the script and everyone's keeping to it. I think it's cute, to be honest, and it energizes the masses without doing much harm.