On the Real vs Imaginary Defense of Taiwan

I still remember the Before times when I used to be a bright-eyed cheerleader for the dangerous idea that “Taiwan is a country.” It seemed so self-evident as a goal to strive for in order to achieve our long-term security.

The day Czech legislator Miloš Vystrčil came and gave a rousing speech about how democracies need to stick together and stand up to the autocratic bullies in the world I was almost giddy. A golden path appeared in my mind where friendship and common values will see like-minded democracies coming together and manifesting Taiwan’s proper place in the world.

Then the war in Ukraine happened and a realization dawned — words are wind. The staunch moral support of all the same set of countries that cheered on Taiwan couldn’t change the brutal maths of the battleground. Lithuania can give Taiwan a representative office that says “Taiwan” on the door. But should China actually invade, they can’t do more to protect us any more than they can protect their own neighbor.

President Lai recently spoke at a meeting of the Inter-parliamentary Alliance on China. It’s a group back by the National Endowment for Democracy and consists of lawmakers from 24 different countries “addressing the challenges posed by China.” Something before-times Angelica could have just adored. But now the only question I have in my mind now is: does this make us safer? And the answer I fear is “no.”

I don’t think it makes Taiwan safer to host what is essentially a panda-bashing jamboree in Taipei when cross-straits tensions are this high. Even if you want to argue that “soft power” matters, we’ve already gotten all the moral support we can from that crowd after being all plucky and brave in COVID. More will not matter unless we can convert that support into anything concrete. Otherwise it’s just more thoughts and prayers if and when the rubber hits the road. Ask Hong Kong how well that worked out.

The brutal reality is none of the countries those lovely legislators came from actually does recognize Taiwan as a country. And for all of President Lai’s optimistic interpretation of UN resolution 2758, you’re a fool if you think this is what’s going to get us through the door.

I fear that Taiwan has a bad case of “main character syndrome” — see in the world as a narrative of good vs evil where good will ultimately triumph in the end. Instead it should give at least equal weight to the world as a chessboard and learn to count the pieces on either side.

With the closure of Maanshan unit 1 last week, Taiwan had proactively and voluntarily taken a powerful piece off the board on our side. It’s such an own-goal I’ve repeatedly heard from concerned friends that the anti-nuclear movement in Taiwan must have been infiltrated by Chinese agents. I WISH that was the case. The truth is far more disturbing. We can always uncloak and drive out foreign influence…but we did this to ourselves.

When you are vulnerable and live in a bad neighborhood, stupidity is a sin. Taiwan is sinning even as it bathes itself in imaginary glory. Getting together with you buddies to talk about how awful your opponent is isn’t diplomacy, it’s brunch. Diplomacy I define as sitting down with entities you don’t necessarily like to maximize the benefits to your interests.

The foreign minister of Ukraine recently went to China. I’m sure he is keenly aware as are we all that support from China is a key reason why Russia is able to keep thrashing Ukraine despite extensive western sanctions. He didn’t go to give high-minded condemnations. He went to try and get a better deal. That’s diplomacy.

In the realm of the imagination, Taiwan feels an almost spiritual connection to Ukraine. Our politicians exhort the US to support Ukraine first though that means slowing down the delivery of weapons we’ve paid for. Out in the real world, FM Kuleba is praising China for their “positive role in supporting peace” and affirming the One-China principle.