I don’t want to understate how bad of an idea this is, but I think there’s something like a 50% chance this ends with TSMC et al. announcing they’re building/expanding chip fabs in the US, Trump makes some triumphant announcement at the WH, and then everyone moves on.
Probably, yes. But one thing I learned from Trump 1.0 is that as willing as he is to pick fights, he is equally willing to declare victory at an incredibly low threshold.
Angelica, I genuinely would like to know how TSMC can be forced to pay tariffs on its chips which are being assembled in products outside the US. Any idea?
The US is Taiwan’s 2nd largest trading partner. Whether or not it’s in the form of raw chips or some product containing said chips, they are getting sold by Taiwan into the states.
Btw, a lot of Taiwanese companies invested in Mexican plants to support friendshoring. But with tariffs on Mexico too, that too will get whacked.
Trump didn’t say he’s going to slap tariffs on phones, laptops and servers with Taiwanese chips inside them. He said he’s going after Taiwanese chips. How is he going to do that when none of them are actually imported directly into the US? If he wants to have Jensen Huang and Tim Cook screaming about loss of American AI competitiveness against China, I guess he could slap tariffs on iPhones and Blackwells, but how would that affect TSMC?
The likelihood of Taiwan being captured by China in the next few years is considered overwhelming in Washington. It's been openly mentioned many times at the World Economic Forum. The consensus seems to be that the Taiwanese aren't going to fight seriously or for very long, and that defending them is probably a waste of time and resources. In this light, the US is trying to minimize its dependence on the island.
Since Taiwanese are only 51% of the population on Taiwan, are you assuming the other 49% will be helping China’s PLA evict the corrupt rulers in Taipei?
Taiwanese defence preparations are underwhelming considering their position. Why would anyone support them (except for microchip production, which you might be able to coerce to move to the US with tariffs) if they are not taking defence as seriously as South Korea, Israel, Finnland?
Taiwan needs to build thousands of bunkers, build protected storage for fuel, food and medicine, invest area denial solutions for the sea to maximize cost for the Chinese.
You need to know there is no such thing as “Taiwanese defence”
The military of the Republic of China was founded in 1911 when Taiwan was still occupied by Japan.
One of the founding principles of the Republic is to unite China by having a national language, Mandarin.
As I was attached to serve in Chiang Kai Shek’s Navy, Captain Kelly was U.S. Naval Attache to China, operating out of the U.S. Embassy to China in Taipei.
Captain Kelly ordered me to ask “are you Taiwanese”? In 1972 none of the officers were Taiwanese. Maybe ½ of the enlisted sailors were Taiwanese.
If the Taiwan independence movement is able to start a war with China, they will not have the support of their own military. The goal of the Taiwan independence movement is to destroy the government they were elected to lead. Their goal is also to make Taiwanese the official language.
Only 51% of Taiwan’s population is Taiwanese and in the military it is less. The military speaks Mandarin. Do you honestly think that military will fight to overturn their founding principles?
If the ruling Taiwan independence movement starts a war with the mainland whole units of their military will defect to the mainland.
Want recent news? The ruling Taiwan independence movement just cut payments to retired military by 30%. This is not FUTURE retirees, they cut payments to existing retirees. What loyalty does the military on Taiwan have to those in Taipei who despise them?
The “Taiwanese defence force” has zero members. They hope to spend U.S. blood to defend their corruption
Trump was elected to run America, and improve American’s lives. The effects on Taiwan isn’t even on the list of priorities. Maybe Taiwan needs to worry about Taiwan?
I remember in 2016 when the DPP celebrated Trump’s election
I supported the Defense of Taiwan Act even from the days of the Shanghai Communique. In July 1972 on board an ROC destroyer at sea, I raised a toast to defending Taiwan.
After 2016, it is clear the DPP wants war and will fight that war with American blood. They betrayed their own military.
We need to cancel all agreements to defend Taiwan. The agreements have turned into a cancer used to threaten peace and the people of Taiwan, both Taiwanese and other ethnic groups
The 1992 accord was perfect. Should Taiwan be in the PRC? Or should the mainland be under the ROC? They agreed to disagree and settle that issue at some time in the future.
I honestly expected a political party from Taiwan to someday field a candidate for mayor of Shanghai. I imagined a gradual political reunification.
Remember the movie Babe? Every beautiful girl in Asia loved that little pig. Singapore Airlines fight attendants had a pig doll.
In the 1999 campaign for the 2000 election, Chen Sui Bien was the Taiwan independence candidate. He became famous as lawyer representing independence activists in 1979.
Chen promised that if elected he would not pursue Taiwan independence. He won with only 38% of the vote and immediately broke his promise. Later he went to prison for corruption.
During his campaign Chen’s DPP called those who spoke Mandarin “pigs”. On the phone I sound Chinese and when I told a wrong number caller I couldn’t speak Taiwanese, I was called “pig”.
In 1999, at an outdoor rally for the KMT (in 1912 the KMT declared Mandarin to be the national language), extremists from Chen’s DPP surrounded the rally.
While shouting “PIGS”, they threw a small pig into the rally and broke its legs.
All over Taiwan, girls were horrified and they voted against Chen. Like I said, he won in a three way race with only 38% of the vote.
1. They murdered Taiwan’s budding tourist industry
2. They canceled the 1992 accords even though they were working and gave Taiwan unchallenged unending autonomy
3. President Tsai appeared beside Sen Rubio and later beside TX Governor Abbott as “the President of Taiwan”. At that time she was the elected President of the Republic of China and the claim that Taiwan has a President is an act of war, similar to South Carolina firing on Fort Sumpter
Of all these, and more, cancelation of the 1992 accords is the most despicable
As they push for war, they work to destroy the government they are elected to lead, and they betrayed their Mandarin speaking military. Recently they cut pensions for already retired military by 30%. This is the second time they hit military retirees. They must know their military will not support the war they hope to start
Taiwan has not been “a stalwart ally” of the U.S. since President Chen was elected in 2000. With exception of the few years between Chen and Tsai, the government in Taipei has dedicated itself to destroying the Republic of China and to deceiving Americans into fighting a war for Taiwan independence. They need Americans to fight for them because the military of the Republic of CHINA is NOT “the Taiwanese military”, they are Mandarin speaking Chinese.
The government in Taipei is NOT our ally and they have broken all promises upon which America’s pledge to defend Taiwan are based.
We must end all Taiwan defense agreements because they are corrupted into tools for Taiwan separatists.
For the good of the people of Taiwan, including the 51% who are ethnic Taiwanese, we must get Taiwan to restore the 1992 accords which gave Taiwan unchallenged autonomy for the extended future while the two sides agreed to disagree in peace.
I don’t want to understate how bad of an idea this is, but I think there’s something like a 50% chance this ends with TSMC et al. announcing they’re building/expanding chip fabs in the US, Trump makes some triumphant announcement at the WH, and then everyone moves on.
That would be bad for Taiwan
Most sentences describing the ramifications of Trump's actions and policies can be so phrased: "That would be bad for______."
(Insert whatever country—the USA very much included—you wish.)
When Xi gets up every morning, the first thing he does is utters a silent prayer of thanks for the Trump restoration.
Sigh. I can only imagine.
Probably, yes. But one thing I learned from Trump 1.0 is that as willing as he is to pick fights, he is equally willing to declare victory at an incredibly low threshold.
Angelica, I genuinely would like to know how TSMC can be forced to pay tariffs on its chips which are being assembled in products outside the US. Any idea?
The US is Taiwan’s 2nd largest trading partner. Whether or not it’s in the form of raw chips or some product containing said chips, they are getting sold by Taiwan into the states.
Btw, a lot of Taiwanese companies invested in Mexican plants to support friendshoring. But with tariffs on Mexico too, that too will get whacked.
Trump didn’t say he’s going to slap tariffs on phones, laptops and servers with Taiwanese chips inside them. He said he’s going after Taiwanese chips. How is he going to do that when none of them are actually imported directly into the US? If he wants to have Jensen Huang and Tim Cook screaming about loss of American AI competitiveness against China, I guess he could slap tariffs on iPhones and Blackwells, but how would that affect TSMC?
The likelihood of Taiwan being captured by China in the next few years is considered overwhelming in Washington. It's been openly mentioned many times at the World Economic Forum. The consensus seems to be that the Taiwanese aren't going to fight seriously or for very long, and that defending them is probably a waste of time and resources. In this light, the US is trying to minimize its dependence on the island.
Like I said if the US is trying to put US first Taiwan must also put Taiwan first.
True.
Since Taiwanese are only 51% of the population on Taiwan, are you assuming the other 49% will be helping China’s PLA evict the corrupt rulers in Taipei?
How is Taiwan a great ally?
Taiwanese defence preparations are underwhelming considering their position. Why would anyone support them (except for microchip production, which you might be able to coerce to move to the US with tariffs) if they are not taking defence as seriously as South Korea, Israel, Finnland?
Taiwan needs to build thousands of bunkers, build protected storage for fuel, food and medicine, invest area denial solutions for the sea to maximize cost for the Chinese.
Taiwans defense is underwhelming I agree and we should do better. Starting with restarting our nuclear plants. Else we won’t remain free for long.
You need to know there is no such thing as “Taiwanese defence”
The military of the Republic of China was founded in 1911 when Taiwan was still occupied by Japan.
One of the founding principles of the Republic is to unite China by having a national language, Mandarin.
As I was attached to serve in Chiang Kai Shek’s Navy, Captain Kelly was U.S. Naval Attache to China, operating out of the U.S. Embassy to China in Taipei.
Captain Kelly ordered me to ask “are you Taiwanese”? In 1972 none of the officers were Taiwanese. Maybe ½ of the enlisted sailors were Taiwanese.
If the Taiwan independence movement is able to start a war with China, they will not have the support of their own military. The goal of the Taiwan independence movement is to destroy the government they were elected to lead. Their goal is also to make Taiwanese the official language.
Only 51% of Taiwan’s population is Taiwanese and in the military it is less. The military speaks Mandarin. Do you honestly think that military will fight to overturn their founding principles?
If the ruling Taiwan independence movement starts a war with the mainland whole units of their military will defect to the mainland.
Want recent news? The ruling Taiwan independence movement just cut payments to retired military by 30%. This is not FUTURE retirees, they cut payments to existing retirees. What loyalty does the military on Taiwan have to those in Taipei who despise them?
The “Taiwanese defence force” has zero members. They hope to spend U.S. blood to defend their corruption
Taiwan should look to Europe and Southeast Asia more.
Hmmm…
Trump was elected to run America, and improve American’s lives. The effects on Taiwan isn’t even on the list of priorities. Maybe Taiwan needs to worry about Taiwan?
I remember in 2016 when the DPP celebrated Trump’s election
I supported the Defense of Taiwan Act even from the days of the Shanghai Communique. In July 1972 on board an ROC destroyer at sea, I raised a toast to defending Taiwan.
After 2016, it is clear the DPP wants war and will fight that war with American blood. They betrayed their own military.
We need to cancel all agreements to defend Taiwan. The agreements have turned into a cancer used to threaten peace and the people of Taiwan, both Taiwanese and other ethnic groups
Facts. Taiwan needs to deal with China on good, neighborly basis. (Whether that eventually means incorporation into the PRC or not is irrelevant.)
The only priorities for an American president should be America. And definitely not blood or money for an island on the other side of the world.
The 1992 accord was perfect. Should Taiwan be in the PRC? Or should the mainland be under the ROC? They agreed to disagree and settle that issue at some time in the future.
I honestly expected a political party from Taiwan to someday field a candidate for mayor of Shanghai. I imagined a gradual political reunification.
Interesting perspective. Anywhere else to look to see that the DPP want war?
Remember the movie Babe? Every beautiful girl in Asia loved that little pig. Singapore Airlines fight attendants had a pig doll.
In the 1999 campaign for the 2000 election, Chen Sui Bien was the Taiwan independence candidate. He became famous as lawyer representing independence activists in 1979.
Chen promised that if elected he would not pursue Taiwan independence. He won with only 38% of the vote and immediately broke his promise. Later he went to prison for corruption.
During his campaign Chen’s DPP called those who spoke Mandarin “pigs”. On the phone I sound Chinese and when I told a wrong number caller I couldn’t speak Taiwanese, I was called “pig”.
In 1999, at an outdoor rally for the KMT (in 1912 the KMT declared Mandarin to be the national language), extremists from Chen’s DPP surrounded the rally.
While shouting “PIGS”, they threw a small pig into the rally and broke its legs.
All over Taiwan, girls were horrified and they voted against Chen. Like I said, he won in a three way race with only 38% of the vote.
Look at what they do
1. They murdered Taiwan’s budding tourist industry
2. They canceled the 1992 accords even though they were working and gave Taiwan unchallenged unending autonomy
3. President Tsai appeared beside Sen Rubio and later beside TX Governor Abbott as “the President of Taiwan”. At that time she was the elected President of the Republic of China and the claim that Taiwan has a President is an act of war, similar to South Carolina firing on Fort Sumpter
Of all these, and more, cancelation of the 1992 accords is the most despicable
As they push for war, they work to destroy the government they are elected to lead, and they betrayed their Mandarin speaking military. Recently they cut pensions for already retired military by 30%. This is the second time they hit military retirees. They must know their military will not support the war they hope to start
Wanting independence and wanting war are two separate things.
Taiwan has not been “a stalwart ally” of the U.S. since President Chen was elected in 2000. With exception of the few years between Chen and Tsai, the government in Taipei has dedicated itself to destroying the Republic of China and to deceiving Americans into fighting a war for Taiwan independence. They need Americans to fight for them because the military of the Republic of CHINA is NOT “the Taiwanese military”, they are Mandarin speaking Chinese.
The government in Taipei is NOT our ally and they have broken all promises upon which America’s pledge to defend Taiwan are based.
We must end all Taiwan defense agreements because they are corrupted into tools for Taiwan separatists.
For the good of the people of Taiwan, including the 51% who are ethnic Taiwanese, we must get Taiwan to restore the 1992 accords which gave Taiwan unchallenged autonomy for the extended future while the two sides agreed to disagree in peace.
I think it’s time to finlandize
Honestly, Taiwan would be lucky if that protection extended beyond the first week of a Chinese invasion.