I'm in the first camp "I wanna take a High Speed Rail to the Mainland!" and moved there from the second camp some time ago, starting at the independence camp 30 years ago. Just observing the incredible development of China during that time span comparing it with the stagnation on the Taiwan side made that happen for me. Having family on both sides got me some insight that is not clouded by propaganda.
BTW: I still think, "Dr." Tsai has a fake degree. And it makes me angry, that she obviously gets away with it.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ....Richard Feynman
Where is the issue of historical justice in all this? Taiwan was part of China from the early Qing, it was promised to the Republic of China in both the Potsdam Proclamation and the Cairo Declaration. Yes, I know all the various ins and outs of the proclamations and what actual legal binding they have on anything (zero), but it was the world telling China that Taiwan would be returned after the Japanese surrender. My cynical self says we don't recognize those declarations because "our guy", meaning Chiang Kai-Shek lost the mainland.
Personally, it's not my business. I'm not choosing sides. I'm just wondering at the events.
People should be paying less attention to Taiwan, that's just a civil war that never ended with no probability of independence, like zero. It's just being used as a cash cow for the military industrial complex, selling Taiwan outdated and unusable equipment, like torpedo's without any direction how to actually assemble them, Tanks that are too big for the city and to heavy for the terrain, Drone boats that cant handled the sea state surrounding area etc.
It's just being used as a provocation tool and battery ram against China, the next Ukraine, while it's industries get hollowed out and moved to the states.
If people are eager for independence then what people should be doing is paying attention to Ryukyu Islands which actually has a real legit independence claim it technically does not belong to Japan, it's sovereignty status remains “undetermined” under international law so there is quite literally nothing that prevents them from reaching out to China and quite frankly it’s quite weird that they have not done it already given Japan more or less completely ignores what US base and troops have been doing on the island
The US military bases in Okinawa have been causing serious and long-term environmental damage, and the related pollution problems have posed a direct threat to the local ecology and the health of residents ( measurable toxic in local residents well above healthy levels ) with any attempts by the residents to investigate the root cause of this ( which has been traced to bases ) inside those bases been blocked by the US military which makes one wonder since if it affects the locals, it affects the service personnel stationed there as well, which may or may not be related to all the heinous crimes being committed by service members.
From 1972 to present day, approximately 6,500 criminal cases involving U.S. military personnel were involved in. in Okinawa, including serious crimes such as murder, rape , hit-and-run and robbery well beyond the point of “drunk and disorderly” like 3 service members stationed at Camp Hansen kidnapping and sexually assaulting a 12-year-old local girl, service member raping a woman while attempting to strangle her to death and this happens just as much inside the military bases as outside, last year a female staff member was raped inside the base. In the week of July 26th to August 2nd, this year 2026, several soldiers stationed in Okinawa have been arrested for offenses including drunk driving and public indecent, assaults and trespassing.
This averages to over 130 cases per year, almost one case every three days and has been going on for 54 years.
As data shows the most dangerous predatory animal on the Ryukyu Islands being US service personnel so it’s quite surprising that the locals have not reached outside to anyone for help since it’s been going on for over a half a century without being addressed by the US military nor the Japanese government.
Same think happening on US bases on South Korea, except you can add drug smuggling into the mix too.
He's too pessimistic that Taiwan has no cards to play. There would be a lot of value for Taiwan to propose terms of reunification to China. I think Taiwan needs a new 國統綱領 that declare the exact minimum of rights and freedoms that the Taiwanese people expect post-reunification, and the terms for guaranteeing those rights.
Maybe it's a naive way of thinking but such a document would in my opinion give Taiwan the initiative. If the document unambiguously declares that Taiwan is Chinese (as the original 國統綱領 did), it would be probably be a difficult document for China to reject. The US has no reason to reject it either, if it reflected the democratic will of the people in Taiwan.
And such a document is necessary, because Taiwan wouldn't want China to impose terms on it. The way of life in Taiwan will change massively if it becomes another Hong Kong. Regardless of what one thinks of the merits of Chinese rule, change will bring its own dislocation. It will likely all end in tears, as LKY predicted all those years ago. Best that the Taiwanese themselves have an important role in managing this process.
Of course practically we know that given Taiwan's politics the possibility of something like this happening is 0%. It's all wishful thinking. Maybe it's better to pray to pictures of Elbridge Colby and place hopes in the Indo Pacific pivot instead.
I respectfully disagree with some of the conclusions. The conclusion about Peng and people like him, that they have been unrealistic, that appears sound to me. But not "the future of Taiwan has never been up to the people of Taiwan." Not that conclusion. IF the USA and other important actors betrayed the Taiwan, that *would* be true, as completely abandoned, I have my doubts that Taiwan would avoid the HK-like fate (which yes, I suppose some Taiwanese will say, "You're threatening me with a good time."). I don't know if my country the USA would abandon Taiwan, but a character like Trump makes that possible. China has to at least think about the USA in these terms: if defending Taiwan is foolish, does the USA do foolish things with its military? Sadly, yes. Being realistic, you do of course have to consider options #1 and #3 - involving war. Ukraine shows the terrible price, but also that the result can "be up to the people of Taiwan." For those options, realistically, my country (the USA) is untrustworthy as a backstop to defense. We are an unreliable partner politically, and just yesterday, we found that the USA moved a carrier out of the South China Sea--a result of government incompetence, the ill-advised Iran debacle. The USA, even under principled leaders, can easily have compromised ability to respond effectively. We are growing weaker. (So, again consider: that's your backstop? *This* USA?) I'm not an expert on defense or that industry, but when you listen to experts say Ukraine had no chance, "only days!", then months, "by the end of the year!," and so on - keep that in mind. Keep in mind that experts are often wrong when an expert says Taiwanese have no chance. (But keep in mind the cost in life and treasure.) If your reality is untrustworthy defense partners, you need to have a more realistic discussion of what an attack would look like for everyday people with weak partners, and what should be done to make attack riskier. More risk for China extends peace while maintaining the status quo. That is realism and it is up to the Taiwan. Taiwan is an island, but in spite of this, is it reasonable to have a defense budget lower than South Korea, lower than the USA, far lower than Israel? I argue that it is not. That choice for a low defense spending looks like a choice to rely on unreliable partners for your defense. I would take a long hard look at what Ukraine produces, what Taiwan can produce now for defense, and what can Taiwan develop on its own to avoid reliance on the USA. I'd put more GDP into my defense (avoiding exploitive pricing from the USA when possible), because all of the questions of what might go wrong for China help to keep the current peace.
I'm in the first camp "I wanna take a High Speed Rail to the Mainland!" and moved there from the second camp some time ago, starting at the independence camp 30 years ago. Just observing the incredible development of China during that time span comparing it with the stagnation on the Taiwan side made that happen for me. Having family on both sides got me some insight that is not clouded by propaganda.
BTW: I still think, "Dr." Tsai has a fake degree. And it makes me angry, that she obviously gets away with it.
Yeah. I think eventually people can migrate from the second camp to the first camp. Some are stuck there tho and it’s kinda grim.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ....Richard Feynman
Where is the issue of historical justice in all this? Taiwan was part of China from the early Qing, it was promised to the Republic of China in both the Potsdam Proclamation and the Cairo Declaration. Yes, I know all the various ins and outs of the proclamations and what actual legal binding they have on anything (zero), but it was the world telling China that Taiwan would be returned after the Japanese surrender. My cynical self says we don't recognize those declarations because "our guy", meaning Chiang Kai-Shek lost the mainland.
Personally, it's not my business. I'm not choosing sides. I'm just wondering at the events.
People should be paying less attention to Taiwan, that's just a civil war that never ended with no probability of independence, like zero. It's just being used as a cash cow for the military industrial complex, selling Taiwan outdated and unusable equipment, like torpedo's without any direction how to actually assemble them, Tanks that are too big for the city and to heavy for the terrain, Drone boats that cant handled the sea state surrounding area etc.
It's just being used as a provocation tool and battery ram against China, the next Ukraine, while it's industries get hollowed out and moved to the states.
If people are eager for independence then what people should be doing is paying attention to Ryukyu Islands which actually has a real legit independence claim it technically does not belong to Japan, it's sovereignty status remains “undetermined” under international law so there is quite literally nothing that prevents them from reaching out to China and quite frankly it’s quite weird that they have not done it already given Japan more or less completely ignores what US base and troops have been doing on the island
The US military bases in Okinawa have been causing serious and long-term environmental damage, and the related pollution problems have posed a direct threat to the local ecology and the health of residents ( measurable toxic in local residents well above healthy levels ) with any attempts by the residents to investigate the root cause of this ( which has been traced to bases ) inside those bases been blocked by the US military which makes one wonder since if it affects the locals, it affects the service personnel stationed there as well, which may or may not be related to all the heinous crimes being committed by service members.
From 1972 to present day, approximately 6,500 criminal cases involving U.S. military personnel were involved in. in Okinawa, including serious crimes such as murder, rape , hit-and-run and robbery well beyond the point of “drunk and disorderly” like 3 service members stationed at Camp Hansen kidnapping and sexually assaulting a 12-year-old local girl, service member raping a woman while attempting to strangle her to death and this happens just as much inside the military bases as outside, last year a female staff member was raped inside the base. In the week of July 26th to August 2nd, this year 2026, several soldiers stationed in Okinawa have been arrested for offenses including drunk driving and public indecent, assaults and trespassing.
This averages to over 130 cases per year, almost one case every three days and has been going on for 54 years.
As data shows the most dangerous predatory animal on the Ryukyu Islands being US service personnel so it’s quite surprising that the locals have not reached outside to anyone for help since it’s been going on for over a half a century without being addressed by the US military nor the Japanese government.
Same think happening on US bases on South Korea, except you can add drug smuggling into the mix too.
Dear Taiwan, don't become the next Ukraine, the Americans are not your friends..... choose Neutrality
He's too pessimistic that Taiwan has no cards to play. There would be a lot of value for Taiwan to propose terms of reunification to China. I think Taiwan needs a new 國統綱領 that declare the exact minimum of rights and freedoms that the Taiwanese people expect post-reunification, and the terms for guaranteeing those rights.
Maybe it's a naive way of thinking but such a document would in my opinion give Taiwan the initiative. If the document unambiguously declares that Taiwan is Chinese (as the original 國統綱領 did), it would be probably be a difficult document for China to reject. The US has no reason to reject it either, if it reflected the democratic will of the people in Taiwan.
And such a document is necessary, because Taiwan wouldn't want China to impose terms on it. The way of life in Taiwan will change massively if it becomes another Hong Kong. Regardless of what one thinks of the merits of Chinese rule, change will bring its own dislocation. It will likely all end in tears, as LKY predicted all those years ago. Best that the Taiwanese themselves have an important role in managing this process.
Of course practically we know that given Taiwan's politics the possibility of something like this happening is 0%. It's all wishful thinking. Maybe it's better to pray to pictures of Elbridge Colby and place hopes in the Indo Pacific pivot instead.
I respectfully disagree with some of the conclusions. The conclusion about Peng and people like him, that they have been unrealistic, that appears sound to me. But not "the future of Taiwan has never been up to the people of Taiwan." Not that conclusion. IF the USA and other important actors betrayed the Taiwan, that *would* be true, as completely abandoned, I have my doubts that Taiwan would avoid the HK-like fate (which yes, I suppose some Taiwanese will say, "You're threatening me with a good time."). I don't know if my country the USA would abandon Taiwan, but a character like Trump makes that possible. China has to at least think about the USA in these terms: if defending Taiwan is foolish, does the USA do foolish things with its military? Sadly, yes. Being realistic, you do of course have to consider options #1 and #3 - involving war. Ukraine shows the terrible price, but also that the result can "be up to the people of Taiwan." For those options, realistically, my country (the USA) is untrustworthy as a backstop to defense. We are an unreliable partner politically, and just yesterday, we found that the USA moved a carrier out of the South China Sea--a result of government incompetence, the ill-advised Iran debacle. The USA, even under principled leaders, can easily have compromised ability to respond effectively. We are growing weaker. (So, again consider: that's your backstop? *This* USA?) I'm not an expert on defense or that industry, but when you listen to experts say Ukraine had no chance, "only days!", then months, "by the end of the year!," and so on - keep that in mind. Keep in mind that experts are often wrong when an expert says Taiwanese have no chance. (But keep in mind the cost in life and treasure.) If your reality is untrustworthy defense partners, you need to have a more realistic discussion of what an attack would look like for everyday people with weak partners, and what should be done to make attack riskier. More risk for China extends peace while maintaining the status quo. That is realism and it is up to the Taiwan. Taiwan is an island, but in spite of this, is it reasonable to have a defense budget lower than South Korea, lower than the USA, far lower than Israel? I argue that it is not. That choice for a low defense spending looks like a choice to rely on unreliable partners for your defense. I would take a long hard look at what Ukraine produces, what Taiwan can produce now for defense, and what can Taiwan develop on its own to avoid reliance on the USA. I'd put more GDP into my defense (avoiding exploitive pricing from the USA when possible), because all of the questions of what might go wrong for China help to keep the current peace.
Great article BTW ...
I think Dennis Peng's Chinese name is 彭文正, not 彭正文.