Dennis Peng (彭正文), used to be a pro-DPP media star. A respected academic, former dean of a journalism school and the popular host of Formosa TV's flagship "News O'clock" (政經看民視）program. He was a fiery and uncompromising supporter of Taiwanese independence.
President Tsai is famed for her "cat diplomacy". Instead of confronting China head-on, she sought political space internationally while taking a cautious stance towards cross-straits relations in order not to provoke China.
Her moderation enraged Peng, who began to roast her regularly from the radical green flank. He called her "cowardly," "soft," and accused her of betraying the Taiwanese nation by refusing to pursue a formal declaration of independence. He formed the hardline Formosa Alliance and pushed for a referendum on independence.
News O'clock was canceled abruptly by Formosa TV in 2019, right in the middle of what turned out to be the last episode. Peng became convinced that the Tsai administration was behind it.
He went on a personal crusade touting the theory that Tsai never completed her PhD at the London School of Economics and her diploma had been forged. This thoroughly alienated him from his core pan-green audience, and eventually got him into legal trouble for defamation. Peng ran away to the United States. The former DPP darling is now a fugitive from the law.
In the years since Peng settled in Washington DC, he keenly sought out politicians, staffers, think tankers and academics to discuss the status of Taiwan. He was slowly stunned by the unavoidable conclusion:
"It's like I woke from a dream. I got to know as many people from the political world as possible. Sat down with them for coffee to talk about cross-straits relations. Not one person supported Taiwanese independence. Not from the left. Not from the right. No one. They don't want to see Taiwan threatened by force or taken by force. But no one thought Taiwan should find a way to become truly independent."
"What's more, after the return of Trump, they would tell me with great certainty the most that America can do for Taiwan would be like the support they give to Ukraine. We can provide you with a endless stream of weapons. But what was Ukraine's fate? As Trump said it became a meat grinder. Is this what Taiwan wants?"
Peng realized something painful, but important: the future of Taiwan has never been up to the people of Taiwan. It's disappointing, but it's also the truth. Trump told reporters of course he's going to talk about Taiwan with Xi in Beijing. But of course, no Taiwanese was ever consulted before that. This is the truth of geopolitics that Dennis Peng had to go so far from home and fall so far from grace to learn: it is a cruel business.
"From Reagan to Clinton to Bush to Obama to Trump. I ask you...was there a single American president who was in favor of a referendum of the Taiwanese people about independence? Not one. When President Chen wanted to do a referendum about returning to the United Nation, he was immediately spanked by the US. What did this prove? It proved that Taiwan was never acknowledged as a sovereign country."
Not because he wanted to, but because he went to America, Peng realized that the Taiwanese independence dream was futile. For some, status quo is good enough, but it never was for Peng.
The way he sees it, there's only four theoretical outcomes for Taiwan:
1. reunification after a war
2. peaceful reunification
3. independence after a war
4. peaceful independence.
China vetos peaceful independence.
America won't help us fight a war.
The remaining option two options both leads to reunification. And he prefers for it to be peaceful.
I run amongst the pro-reunification Taiwanese circles and it's really interesting. There's a split between the ppl who are enthusiastic about being a part of China ("I wanna take a High Speed Rail to the Mainland!") and the people who are more like..."welp...we're cooked. Guess I’m pro-reunification now."
Not gonna lie...it sucks to be in the second camp. But it's also a growth opportunity. What were the things I believed before, and were they really true? There is pain, but also relief in putting down your old illusions. Because few of us are truly fooled without choosing to fool ourselves.
I'm in the first camp "I wanna take a High Speed Rail to the Mainland!" and moved there from the second camp some time ago, starting at the independence camp 30 years ago. Just observing the incredible development of China during that time span comparing it with the stagnation on the Taiwan side made that happen for me. Having family on both sides got me some insight that is not clouded by propaganda.
BTW: I still think, "Dr." Tsai has a fake degree. And it makes me angry, that she obviously gets away with it.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” ....Richard Feynman
Where is the issue of historical justice in all this? Taiwan was part of China from the early Qing, it was promised to the Republic of China in both the Potsdam Proclamation and the Cairo Declaration. Yes, I know all the various ins and outs of the proclamations and what actual legal binding they have on anything (zero), but it was the world telling China that Taiwan would be returned after the Japanese surrender. My cynical self says we don't recognize those declarations because "our guy", meaning Chiang Kai-Shek lost the mainland.
Personally, it's not my business. I'm not choosing sides. I'm just wondering at the events.