2025 is the year we realized the world order is already changing. What is the theory of finding a new equilibrium for the world without another world war?
One school of thought is that China is a civilisation state https://asiasociety.org/india/understanding-china-and-its-rise-civilization-state ... it never had the DNA of religious zeal (Spain), trade colonies (UK) or manifest destiny (US). However, what does security mean when increased forward defense (encirclement) leads to insecurity for another? I can see his point about AUKUS ... the role of subs is to scare shipping which seems redundant when the bulk of mineral exports go to .. China. However, the lack of participation in rule-setting and resolution eg UNCLOS is worrying. If you want might is right this only leads to arms race which doesn't benefit anyone.
Full interview with Hugh here on Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/joewalker/p/why-great-powers-sleepwalk-to-war
Hugh White really is a great realistic take, argues in good faith, very well researched, willing to argue both sides, etc.
This video is basically Australian defense policy:
“So under this scenario we’re spending close to 30 billion dollars a year to protect our trade with China from China?”
https://youtu.be/sgspkxfkS4k?si=KhTl4YmVxoAngYSj
You call him “Huge” White three times. Unless you know something about him the rest of us don’t, it’s *Hugh* White, lol
Another thoughtful thinker is Kevin Rudd https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szAChpVvQuk
One school of thought is that China is a civilisation state https://asiasociety.org/india/understanding-china-and-its-rise-civilization-state ... it never had the DNA of religious zeal (Spain), trade colonies (UK) or manifest destiny (US). However, what does security mean when increased forward defense (encirclement) leads to insecurity for another? I can see his point about AUKUS ... the role of subs is to scare shipping which seems redundant when the bulk of mineral exports go to .. China. However, the lack of participation in rule-setting and resolution eg UNCLOS is worrying. If you want might is right this only leads to arms race which doesn't benefit anyone.