I agree with everything written here. I arrived in November in disbelief that Covid could stay out forever and was hoping that the government would perform some pro active testing like sewage sampling. They did an amazing job keeping it out until the cluster of circumstances that allowed this to happen. May 28 we should have gone to Level 4, I was very worried when we did not. Someone has to take the pain to get in front of more preventable deaths. The government will need to get in front of this and help the people sacrificing their lively hoods to soften the blow and keep things sane. If not it I fear we'll descend into a spiral of more deaths, social/political issues like we witnessed in our home countries. A few weeks back I spotted a guy wearing a flaming "Q" T-shirt. Yeah. Scary. Local variants of that s**t might start sprouting up if things get worse.
I was dubious about this idea a few weeks back, lots of people were jumping the gun back then. But we've seen, sadly, that a significant portion of the population can't be trusted to endure a few minor inconveniences for a short period and because of that, well here we are. Seems like locking everything down is the only was to go. A couple of weeks to get it under control, then we can review. It will probably have a much smaller social and economic impact than continuing as we are for months until enough of us are vaccinated.
Even if we do go to level 4, I think we'll still see a lot of elderly people violating the laws even though they're most at risk - perhaps a consequence of a culture which pays unconditional (and very often undeserved) respect to elders, breeding entitlement? And then there will be the anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, and other imbeciles of the 'but muh freedum' brigade. Still, for the majority it should work.
It cannot be "a couple of weeks", that's delusional. If you want it to be "a couple of weeks", you lock down hard the moment any cases pop up, the way they do in Australia.
"A couple weeks" can get the cases down from hundreds a day to tens a day but not to zero, and then once you open up, they will explode again.
The only viable solution is to eliminate, and "a couple weeks" is not enough for that..
Where Taiwan is right now is where Melbourne was before their 4-month lockdown. Which eventually succeeded -- success is guaranteed with sufficient persistence and they persisted -- but it took 4 months.
It will take Taiwan 4 months too, unless it can shorten it by testing the whole population as they do in China.
But it appears that there has been no investment in testing infrastructure in preparation for such an eventual need, so it cannot do that.
Is there going to be an appetite for a 4-month lockdown? Does not seem like there is, certainly not with the whole world suffering an acute chip shortage, Taiwan being the main supplier, and Taiwan not really being a sovereign country (if your existence depends on the protection of another power, you are not sovereign). BTW, the latter is also the reason why South Korea and Japan never went for elimination while Vietnam and Laos did -- guess what one major difference between them is...
Maybe the true imbeciles are you paranoids and slaves of covid as a tool of oppression . It seems clear you haven’t lived the 2020 lockdown nightmare in western countries, huh? If you want to be caged, cage yourself. Respect others wish of ‘freedum’ and mental wellbeing. Lots more people die from other diseases or even from suicides caused by depression and anxiety.... something for which a lockdown is the “perfect mix”. Did you know??
So sad that Taiwan is going through this... but it was also preventable, as you've pointed out.
The United States and European governments also deserve a portion of blame. If the United States / Europe had adopted policies like the ones implemented in Taiwan/Vietnam/Mongolia/South Korea/etc. in February 2020, this pandemic could have been halted worldwide, vaccines would have been unnecessary, and places like Taiwan which did things right in 2020 would not have been left vulnerable now.
As someone in hella vaccinated California, I'm also worried about the next few months as vaccines fade out. Will immunity go away as antibody levels go down (testing shows that antibodies are undetectable 6-8 months after the second dose)? Will everyone get booster shots? Will everyone be complacent because of high vaccination rates while ignoring vaccine fade out? I hope the vaccines stay effective well after 8 months, but just because I hope that doesn't make it so.
I am also very worried about next winter (we may well get a big Indian variant-drive summer wave in the US, but it's winter that we should be really concerned about -- that's when the vaccines will have faded for most, now it will be just for the initial recipients). Victory has been declared officially, Mission Accomplished, and everything, with no caveats about boosters.
Some people who see this as yet another political issue, especially in places like California, will be more than happy to be on boosters for the rest of their lives.
But that is definitely not what was promised, so we should expect a lot of angry people when the ICUs start filling with vaccinated people and the booster campaign has to start.
Completely agree. We should have locked down on 28 May and I was surprised it didn't happen. Nobody likes a full lockdown but God help all those vulnerable people if we don't do it right now.
I work in the sciences, but the true role models right now are the good people who fearlessly work with infectious diseases and make a career of it. The most extreme version is to work with the deadliest viruses, Ebola/Marburg comes to mind, so scientists conducting virology research start their work day by stripping down to underwear, conning the gamma-irradiated Tyvek suits, pressurizing the SCBA air delivery system, and walking into a situation where mistakes are final. The take-away is how they go home. Chemical shower with probably isopropanol, while still in-suit, then a more standard antimicrobial shower, and finally an exit into the rest of the world. The hot an neutral zone division is respected. These scientists divide their reality into hot and neutral. [I am admittedly filling in the blanks here, and someone could jump in and make this more accurate, but my aim is to offer advice about how to understand what it means to mitigate the COVID risks in a crisis situation.] The first thing is understand that coming home is the same thing as leaving the hot zone, so a decontamination ritual is warranted. What does this mean? It means setting up entry into your living space to facilitate not bringing anything contaminated in. I don't have information on how long the SARS-Cov-19 virus can remain viable on say, a piece of clothing, so I assume the worst possible "indefinitely" and when coming home spray my shoe bottoms with rubbing alcohol 99% [germs don't float indefinitely so most end up on the floor]. I then spray my mask inside and out (this makes it safe to use again when dry), since my washing machine is in the entryway, I take my pants, shirt and socks and toss them into the washing machine, grab a pair of sweatpants and tshirt and enjoy peace of mind in my home. I suggest doing something similar, you will definitely never regret doing too much to keep your family safe. If the situation becomes really extreme, I suggest having a p100 filter with 6000 or 7000 series 3M half-face respirator. These are very comfortable, they offer reliable and dependable protection for months on a single pair of cartridges, and as a bonus will filter a broad variety of chemicals from the air you would otherwise breathe -- great for smog! Your exhale is channeled downwards toward your own neck, so glasses will never fog. The mask and filters can be sprayed with ribbing alcohol to disinfect between uses. Mask plus filters will cost about $40USD, the knockoff 山寨masks are nearly as good as the original and are easy to find. Please everyone stay safe.
Level 4 is a fantasy land reserved for lesser nations. At least that is what I am picking up from the Taiwanese politicos and some locals. There is still this arrogance that floats around like "We are Taiwanese, we are not the West. We will beat this." And in some sense, the outbreak is blamed on foreigners. Remember last year when "foreign" cases were reported media-wide, and how many places were barring all foreigners from entering, or making them show their passports before entering? As a foreigner, I do. And it is happening again in Miaoli and Taoyuan.
But, I digress. The lack of preparedness and underhanded response to this explosion of cases is a failure that spans the government/business divide. Why were no vaccines being prepared ahead of time? Even if not for local cases, then to help fight it in the rest of the world. Imagine the huge gain in face if Taiwan was making a vaccine that China would definitely try to block. China would have literally been hindering the assistance in fighting the outbreak that began in their borders. But no, nothing. Now Taiwan is desperately begging for handouts from other nations. A fully developed industrialized nation with a top 20 economy is hoping for handouts. It got so bad that even the mayor of the capitol blasted the US for downgrading Taiwan's outbreak as "not so bad" (and comparatively speaking, it isn't) when discussing vaccine availability. Why is it the West's responsibility to hand out vaccines to a wealthy nation like Taiwan?
It is clear level 4 will not happen, probably no matter how bad this gets. Even as the numbers go down, the trap is set. Unvaccinated people will start marching out in droves, and in a few short weeks, we may well see numbers rocket back up to above 500 per day.
Could people please stop writing such negative, grim and depressing opinions? Some people have come to Taiwan as covid refugees who suffered months and months of lockdown in their place of origin, I simply don’t want to face that fate again. Lockdown is precisely what I came to Taiwan running away from. Now I want freedom and live my life. No more lockdowns and let’s life normally once for all. The level of scalation of restrictions here is insane: mental health and economic collapse will hurt a lot more than stupid covid!!
I can understand your sentiments. But there is a fundamental difference in the capacity for Western welfare states to go hard and long on lock downs, and Asian non-welfare states.
Take for instance Australia. We are taxed quite a lot compared with Taiwan. And a very strong majority of our federal budget goes into welfare. Much of the public service is oriented around providing welfare. When we locked down our government did what it does often and does well. It gave people (and businesses) lots of money and provided lots of services. It is still giving people in the state of Victoria money now and supporting small businesses. And the political situation is such that going into debt to provide welfare is ok (plus our iron ore exports are propping up our GDP).
The problem in Taiwan is that you have a relatively low average wage compared to the West and a lot of small business owners, a lot of mum and pop shops everywhere. If you go for a hard lockdown over a long period, how do those people survive? I would hazard a guess that if Taiwan went into a really hard lockdown for a long period, those living hand to mouth would either ignore the restrictions or be out on the streets protesting or rioting. It is not about how well disciplined they are or about their civic consciousness. It is about their material necessities.
For me, when the pandemic started, all the night markets and such should have closed. Those very crowded and relatively un-hygienic places were always at risk of causing a rapid spread. And it seems, somewhat predictably, that they were sources of outbreaks on this occassion. Again, I don't think the decision to leave them open was based on medical advice, but rather economic reality, because they employ a lot of people who cannot afford to not work for weeks on end.
The point you made about pre-emptive tests was good.
Your points are well made and noted. But I think Taiwan has plenty of financial reserves and can find a way of supporting citizens in the event of a lockdown. No one is saying it will be easy. But a 30-day enforced lockdown is doable and will probably have to be done in the end whether people like it or not. It is regrettable, but you know it was bound to come in eventually and it seems to me that this was the major oversight, i.e. "What shall we do when there is a major outbreak."
I agree with everything written here. I arrived in November in disbelief that Covid could stay out forever and was hoping that the government would perform some pro active testing like sewage sampling. They did an amazing job keeping it out until the cluster of circumstances that allowed this to happen. May 28 we should have gone to Level 4, I was very worried when we did not. Someone has to take the pain to get in front of more preventable deaths. The government will need to get in front of this and help the people sacrificing their lively hoods to soften the blow and keep things sane. If not it I fear we'll descend into a spiral of more deaths, social/political issues like we witnessed in our home countries. A few weeks back I spotted a guy wearing a flaming "Q" T-shirt. Yeah. Scary. Local variants of that s**t might start sprouting up if things get worse.
I was dubious about this idea a few weeks back, lots of people were jumping the gun back then. But we've seen, sadly, that a significant portion of the population can't be trusted to endure a few minor inconveniences for a short period and because of that, well here we are. Seems like locking everything down is the only was to go. A couple of weeks to get it under control, then we can review. It will probably have a much smaller social and economic impact than continuing as we are for months until enough of us are vaccinated.
Even if we do go to level 4, I think we'll still see a lot of elderly people violating the laws even though they're most at risk - perhaps a consequence of a culture which pays unconditional (and very often undeserved) respect to elders, breeding entitlement? And then there will be the anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, and other imbeciles of the 'but muh freedum' brigade. Still, for the majority it should work.
It cannot be "a couple of weeks", that's delusional. If you want it to be "a couple of weeks", you lock down hard the moment any cases pop up, the way they do in Australia.
"A couple weeks" can get the cases down from hundreds a day to tens a day but not to zero, and then once you open up, they will explode again.
The only viable solution is to eliminate, and "a couple weeks" is not enough for that..
Where Taiwan is right now is where Melbourne was before their 4-month lockdown. Which eventually succeeded -- success is guaranteed with sufficient persistence and they persisted -- but it took 4 months.
It will take Taiwan 4 months too, unless it can shorten it by testing the whole population as they do in China.
But it appears that there has been no investment in testing infrastructure in preparation for such an eventual need, so it cannot do that.
Is there going to be an appetite for a 4-month lockdown? Does not seem like there is, certainly not with the whole world suffering an acute chip shortage, Taiwan being the main supplier, and Taiwan not really being a sovereign country (if your existence depends on the protection of another power, you are not sovereign). BTW, the latter is also the reason why South Korea and Japan never went for elimination while Vietnam and Laos did -- guess what one major difference between them is...
Maybe the true imbeciles are you paranoids and slaves of covid as a tool of oppression . It seems clear you haven’t lived the 2020 lockdown nightmare in western countries, huh? If you want to be caged, cage yourself. Respect others wish of ‘freedum’ and mental wellbeing. Lots more people die from other diseases or even from suicides caused by depression and anxiety.... something for which a lockdown is the “perfect mix”. Did you know??
Enjoy you freedom of having a life expectancy in the 40s.
LMAO, you're hilarious sweetie x
So sad that Taiwan is going through this... but it was also preventable, as you've pointed out.
The United States and European governments also deserve a portion of blame. If the United States / Europe had adopted policies like the ones implemented in Taiwan/Vietnam/Mongolia/South Korea/etc. in February 2020, this pandemic could have been halted worldwide, vaccines would have been unnecessary, and places like Taiwan which did things right in 2020 would not have been left vulnerable now.
As someone in hella vaccinated California, I'm also worried about the next few months as vaccines fade out. Will immunity go away as antibody levels go down (testing shows that antibodies are undetectable 6-8 months after the second dose)? Will everyone get booster shots? Will everyone be complacent because of high vaccination rates while ignoring vaccine fade out? I hope the vaccines stay effective well after 8 months, but just because I hope that doesn't make it so.
I am also very worried about next winter (we may well get a big Indian variant-drive summer wave in the US, but it's winter that we should be really concerned about -- that's when the vaccines will have faded for most, now it will be just for the initial recipients). Victory has been declared officially, Mission Accomplished, and everything, with no caveats about boosters.
Some people who see this as yet another political issue, especially in places like California, will be more than happy to be on boosters for the rest of their lives.
But that is definitely not what was promised, so we should expect a lot of angry people when the ICUs start filling with vaccinated people and the booster campaign has to start.
And that day will come, sooner than later
Completely agree. We should have locked down on 28 May and I was surprised it didn't happen. Nobody likes a full lockdown but God help all those vulnerable people if we don't do it right now.
I work in the sciences, but the true role models right now are the good people who fearlessly work with infectious diseases and make a career of it. The most extreme version is to work with the deadliest viruses, Ebola/Marburg comes to mind, so scientists conducting virology research start their work day by stripping down to underwear, conning the gamma-irradiated Tyvek suits, pressurizing the SCBA air delivery system, and walking into a situation where mistakes are final. The take-away is how they go home. Chemical shower with probably isopropanol, while still in-suit, then a more standard antimicrobial shower, and finally an exit into the rest of the world. The hot an neutral zone division is respected. These scientists divide their reality into hot and neutral. [I am admittedly filling in the blanks here, and someone could jump in and make this more accurate, but my aim is to offer advice about how to understand what it means to mitigate the COVID risks in a crisis situation.] The first thing is understand that coming home is the same thing as leaving the hot zone, so a decontamination ritual is warranted. What does this mean? It means setting up entry into your living space to facilitate not bringing anything contaminated in. I don't have information on how long the SARS-Cov-19 virus can remain viable on say, a piece of clothing, so I assume the worst possible "indefinitely" and when coming home spray my shoe bottoms with rubbing alcohol 99% [germs don't float indefinitely so most end up on the floor]. I then spray my mask inside and out (this makes it safe to use again when dry), since my washing machine is in the entryway, I take my pants, shirt and socks and toss them into the washing machine, grab a pair of sweatpants and tshirt and enjoy peace of mind in my home. I suggest doing something similar, you will definitely never regret doing too much to keep your family safe. If the situation becomes really extreme, I suggest having a p100 filter with 6000 or 7000 series 3M half-face respirator. These are very comfortable, they offer reliable and dependable protection for months on a single pair of cartridges, and as a bonus will filter a broad variety of chemicals from the air you would otherwise breathe -- great for smog! Your exhale is channeled downwards toward your own neck, so glasses will never fog. The mask and filters can be sprayed with ribbing alcohol to disinfect between uses. Mask plus filters will cost about $40USD, the knockoff 山寨masks are nearly as good as the original and are easy to find. Please everyone stay safe.
Level 4 is a fantasy land reserved for lesser nations. At least that is what I am picking up from the Taiwanese politicos and some locals. There is still this arrogance that floats around like "We are Taiwanese, we are not the West. We will beat this." And in some sense, the outbreak is blamed on foreigners. Remember last year when "foreign" cases were reported media-wide, and how many places were barring all foreigners from entering, or making them show their passports before entering? As a foreigner, I do. And it is happening again in Miaoli and Taoyuan.
But, I digress. The lack of preparedness and underhanded response to this explosion of cases is a failure that spans the government/business divide. Why were no vaccines being prepared ahead of time? Even if not for local cases, then to help fight it in the rest of the world. Imagine the huge gain in face if Taiwan was making a vaccine that China would definitely try to block. China would have literally been hindering the assistance in fighting the outbreak that began in their borders. But no, nothing. Now Taiwan is desperately begging for handouts from other nations. A fully developed industrialized nation with a top 20 economy is hoping for handouts. It got so bad that even the mayor of the capitol blasted the US for downgrading Taiwan's outbreak as "not so bad" (and comparatively speaking, it isn't) when discussing vaccine availability. Why is it the West's responsibility to hand out vaccines to a wealthy nation like Taiwan?
It is clear level 4 will not happen, probably no matter how bad this gets. Even as the numbers go down, the trap is set. Unvaccinated people will start marching out in droves, and in a few short weeks, we may well see numbers rocket back up to above 500 per day.
Could people please stop writing such negative, grim and depressing opinions? Some people have come to Taiwan as covid refugees who suffered months and months of lockdown in their place of origin, I simply don’t want to face that fate again. Lockdown is precisely what I came to Taiwan running away from. Now I want freedom and live my life. No more lockdowns and let’s life normally once for all. The level of scalation of restrictions here is insane: mental health and economic collapse will hurt a lot more than stupid covid!!
3.7 million people have died from COVID.
It's actually closer to 10 million, perhaps more.
Ivan doesn't care about reality. But he's free to run away from Taiwan if he doesn't like it. That'd be nice.
I can understand your sentiments. But there is a fundamental difference in the capacity for Western welfare states to go hard and long on lock downs, and Asian non-welfare states.
Take for instance Australia. We are taxed quite a lot compared with Taiwan. And a very strong majority of our federal budget goes into welfare. Much of the public service is oriented around providing welfare. When we locked down our government did what it does often and does well. It gave people (and businesses) lots of money and provided lots of services. It is still giving people in the state of Victoria money now and supporting small businesses. And the political situation is such that going into debt to provide welfare is ok (plus our iron ore exports are propping up our GDP).
The problem in Taiwan is that you have a relatively low average wage compared to the West and a lot of small business owners, a lot of mum and pop shops everywhere. If you go for a hard lockdown over a long period, how do those people survive? I would hazard a guess that if Taiwan went into a really hard lockdown for a long period, those living hand to mouth would either ignore the restrictions or be out on the streets protesting or rioting. It is not about how well disciplined they are or about their civic consciousness. It is about their material necessities.
For me, when the pandemic started, all the night markets and such should have closed. Those very crowded and relatively un-hygienic places were always at risk of causing a rapid spread. And it seems, somewhat predictably, that they were sources of outbreaks on this occassion. Again, I don't think the decision to leave them open was based on medical advice, but rather economic reality, because they employ a lot of people who cannot afford to not work for weeks on end.
The point you made about pre-emptive tests was good.
Your points are well made and noted. But I think Taiwan has plenty of financial reserves and can find a way of supporting citizens in the event of a lockdown. No one is saying it will be easy. But a 30-day enforced lockdown is doable and will probably have to be done in the end whether people like it or not. It is regrettable, but you know it was bound to come in eventually and it seems to me that this was the major oversight, i.e. "What shall we do when there is a major outbreak."