The diplomatic Tsai Ing-wen started a new era for the DPP. Is her successor Lai Ching-te going to resemble her more or is a throwback to a less predictable dynamic possible?
The thought experiment at the end is interesting. 20 years go, China was much weaker. Because it’s much weaker, there is no point in pissing her off so badly, at the time when America’s foreign policy attention was squarely focused on the Middle East. And it’s not as if China was intentionally creating troubles for the US then, like what Al Qaeda or Iran did. Mistreating a major, but still very weak party is like a billionaire mistreating a poorer relative from the countryside. It’s just not so gentlemanly. Now, China is much stronger. Because it’s too strong, the attention is shifted this way. I’d argue it’s precisely because, and only because of the relative strength differential that determines how US would treat Taiwan in relation to China.
The difference between the A-Bian and Lai eras is primarily twofold: 1) The maturity of the DPP as a political force - Chen was a rookie, Lai is seasoned and has Bi-Khim as his deputy; and 2) The US business community is no longer so keen to access the Chinese consumer market. In 2000-2008, Chen was desperate to pull US attention back to Taiwan’s strategic value against China. At the time, Taiwan’s economy was being hollowed out as factories and foreign investors flooded across the Strait. He miscalculated and overreached, making Ma Ying-jeou seem like the mature realist. Tsai had no choice but to pull the DPP back from the edge. Today, it is a different story. US business is looking to diversify away from China and the US administration sees Taiwan (not just TSMC) as a strategic asset once again. Hsiao has everyone in Washington on speed dial, so what Lai says is much more carefully calibrated for the intended audience than Chen could have ever imagined. I think every word of that inauguration speech was chosen with the aim of gently testing American public support, without pushing any panic buttons. Look at the US reaction so far and it’s obvious he succeeded. Taiwan is back to being the way Americans always thought of it before China joined the WTO: a plucky little island standing firm against the big bad Communist aggressor.
Lai is not likely to push overtly for status change, but he is almost certainly going to push back against the One China narrative that Beijing insists upon, and he is surely going to paint the KMT as sellouts who can’t be trusted in Washington. The KMT/TPP, meanwhile, is completely out of touch and will almost certainly hand Lai a second term if they carry on this way.
The thought experiment at the end is interesting. 20 years go, China was much weaker. Because it’s much weaker, there is no point in pissing her off so badly, at the time when America’s foreign policy attention was squarely focused on the Middle East. And it’s not as if China was intentionally creating troubles for the US then, like what Al Qaeda or Iran did. Mistreating a major, but still very weak party is like a billionaire mistreating a poorer relative from the countryside. It’s just not so gentlemanly. Now, China is much stronger. Because it’s too strong, the attention is shifted this way. I’d argue it’s precisely because, and only because of the relative strength differential that determines how US would treat Taiwan in relation to China.
The difference between the A-Bian and Lai eras is primarily twofold: 1) The maturity of the DPP as a political force - Chen was a rookie, Lai is seasoned and has Bi-Khim as his deputy; and 2) The US business community is no longer so keen to access the Chinese consumer market. In 2000-2008, Chen was desperate to pull US attention back to Taiwan’s strategic value against China. At the time, Taiwan’s economy was being hollowed out as factories and foreign investors flooded across the Strait. He miscalculated and overreached, making Ma Ying-jeou seem like the mature realist. Tsai had no choice but to pull the DPP back from the edge. Today, it is a different story. US business is looking to diversify away from China and the US administration sees Taiwan (not just TSMC) as a strategic asset once again. Hsiao has everyone in Washington on speed dial, so what Lai says is much more carefully calibrated for the intended audience than Chen could have ever imagined. I think every word of that inauguration speech was chosen with the aim of gently testing American public support, without pushing any panic buttons. Look at the US reaction so far and it’s obvious he succeeded. Taiwan is back to being the way Americans always thought of it before China joined the WTO: a plucky little island standing firm against the big bad Communist aggressor.
Lai is not likely to push overtly for status change, but he is almost certainly going to push back against the One China narrative that Beijing insists upon, and he is surely going to paint the KMT as sellouts who can’t be trusted in Washington. The KMT/TPP, meanwhile, is completely out of touch and will almost certainly hand Lai a second term if they carry on this way.