How are the Taiwanese not worried?

Looks like Taiwan is the most dangerous place on earth again this week. How are the Taiwanese staying so cool?

LCD billboard at a Taiwanese rail station hacked to displace an anti-Pelosi message during her trip.

When I first arrived in Taiwan, I couldn’t believe how sanguine people are about the threat of a Chinese invasion. A little more than two years later, I’ve become one of them. Nancy Pelosi was here? Hope she had a nice time. China’s big mad? Well when is China not mad? Three days of military drills completely encircling the island of Taiwan? Haha, well that’s…um…well okay that’s actually quite concerning. Wait, how are the Taiwanese staying so calm again?

The last time the Taiwanese were actually scared was probably the Third Taiwan Straits crisis in 1996 when the PRC conducted a series of missile tests into the waters near Taiwan. The atmosphere back then was by all accounts heightened. But what happened then was Clinton sending a couple of air carriers into the region and the Chinese backed right off.

Since then, the balance of power both militarily and economically has gone in the wrong direction. Yet somehow the fear has evaporated.

Yo. China just said it’s going to fire missiles ALL AROUND YOUR ISLAND, including potentially in territorial waters. In addition to a show of force it appears to be a dry run for some kind of blockade strategy that a Chinese General charmingly dubbed “bolt the door and beat the dog.” The Chinese ambassador to France just said on French TV “After the reunification we are going to do a reeducation.” <i>Sounds to me like a decent time to get worried.</i>

Nope, still not worried (in the short term)

At the behest of editors from the other side of the world, I interviewed at least 15 people from friends to sources I interviewed for unrelated stories to my plumber. None of them viewed the missile tests as an immediate danger no matter what their point of view on the medium or long term. “A barking dog doesn’t bite,” said my roommate Bob, summing up what I heard from just about everyone.

But just because nobody’s worried doesn’t mean there isn’t a diversity of views.

Old folks: Not worried because they don’t think Xi would be that stupid

My landlady, a retired bureaucrat in her late 50s, is the only rabid “deep blue” viewpoint that I found. She called Nancy Pelosi an “old witch” and an “arrogant American” and President Tsai “weak and corrupt.”

“Why should Xi bother to invade Taiwan? He’ll should let it rot from the inside out and pick it off,” she fumed, “but if he does invade it’ll all be over in days.”

Mr. Wang, a retired engineer in his 60s, agrees that China won’t invade.

“What use would Xi have for a Taiwan that is a burning husk?” He asked, “we are all descendants of the Yellow Emperor.”

Mr. Wang would rather pesky American officials cooled it on the Taiwan visits for a while though. “What’s the good of Americans coming and making a big show? The economy is more important.”

Working folks: Not worried because worrying does no good

My plumber efficiently cleaned my drain while I peppered him with questions. His response was the platonic perfection of the terse, apolitical Taiwanese attitude that is very common amongst people in their 30s and 40s.

“Am I worried about an invasion? No. I don’t think there will be an invasion…What would I do if an invasion happens? I’ll worry about it when it does. What do I think of Pelosi coming to Taiwan? I don’t think about politics.”

My roommates Bob and Ian also fall into this bucket to some degree.

“What good does it do to be worried? We’ve got to live our lives,” said Ian.

Young people: Not worried in the short term, preparing for contingencies in the long term

Out of everybody I interviewed, it’s perhaps the two Taiwanese in their twenties that were the most concerned.

“Taiwan didn’t get more dangerous overnight,” said a project manager I know, “but we’ve been worried since the war on Ukraine. That was when we realized, maybe not yet, but it can happen here. That is in fact ultimately China’s plan.”

Since then, a bunch of his friends have gotten into civil defense preparedness.

“Fear comes from the unknown. People are studying how the people in the Ukraine defended themselves. One friend I know have gone into military studies as a career.”

It’s just as important to defend Taiwan against disinformation as from missiles, he said.

“There are so many false narratives from China and the KMT. We used to believe that China could take Taiwan in a day. Now we know it’s objectively impossible. It’s used to create an atmosphere of fear, which is a serious threat.”

My ex-roommate Charlie, who has moved down to Tainan, delicately discussed the possibility of a post-occupation insurgency. She spends some weekends with a civil defense group.

“There are those who would be compliant for their own benefits, but others will rise up and fight,” she said, “we are preparing to defend ourselves.”

She laughed derisively when I asked her if she sees herself as “descendent of the Yellow Emperor.”

. . .

I think worrying is a very social phenomenon that at some point becomes decoupled with actual risks in either directions. Maybe the Taiwanese are not worried simply because the Taiwanese are not worried. And maybe it is not a terrible thing, as long as it doesn’t prevent individuals and the society from doing what’s necessary to strengthen defense.

Maybe Taiwan shouldn’t “be worried.” But it shouldn’t be sanguine either.

At the very least, it is now as clear as a bell that China has carefully considered a blockade scenario. While we cannot say for sure if this is what will eventually come to pass, we obviously have to defend against this possibility. How would Taiwan “hold up” for vital supplies? The Ministry of Economic Affairs claim we have 11 days of Liquified Natural Gas at hand…I’ve heard privately from industry it’s more like a week in the summer. As for food? Medicine? Who knows.