I'm aware this is nearly a half year old (just discovered). Just wanted to say: I don't disagree with a single word. This is the most convincing piece on the Taiwan-China situation I ever recall reading.
Superb. Witty. Evocative. Quantum physics jokes! And full of food references, natural for anything about my beloved Taiwan. I am going to re-read this many more times. And OMG that last tweet.
Great analysis and insight. Timely after reading Monocle's interview with Enoch Wu on his view about the need to bolster Taiwan's military reserve forces. Subscribed!
As for what Trump said, I assume John Bolton really wants to sell his memoirs. As with a lot of things in politics, context is everything. America may be 8,000 miles away but the 7th fleet isn't, and America and their allies have had a much more frequent presence in the region recently.
The tough think is that time wise, China is the one that is not ready now but will be better prepared and positioned in the future. Then again, an actual conventional invasion is far from the top of their list of preferences. They hope 'checkmating' Taiwan will do the job. In China's unrestricted warfare world, there is more than one way to skin a warrior cat.
It is refreshing to read a thoughtful and insightful piece (in engaging prose:), with more intellectual balance and less emotion than is usually seen in Taiwan commentary. As much as I have been pleased at the recent American outpouring of support for Taiwan, you are right to remind us what may happen if push comes to shove. It is too easy to get complacent in our recent bubble of optimism. China keeps on letting that independence envelope be pushed, but how long will it respond only with grave and somber threats? The CCP keeps on backing themselves into a corner with rhetoric-and-no-action, and I fear that the perceived pressure to back up these somber threats with action will NOT come from desire for international credibility but rather from the need for domestic credibility. (@AngelicOung - this is my first or second read of your work. I look forward to reading more. Keep up the great work. :) )
Thanks, Nigel. Watch this space for more to come. I just returned to Taiwan last year and given the overwhelming prevailing mood of complacency regarding the China threat, I assumed that the fundamentals must have somehow improved for Taiwan. Unfortunately, once I looked into it I can’t believe how much more dire things have actually gotten. I believe the Taiwanese populace simply got too exhausted being afraid all the time. This is leading to magical thinking. “China’s got its hands full with HK and Xinjiang” rather than “If the CCP went farther than we could have thought possible in HK and Xinjiang, what does it mean for their plans for Taiwan?
Watch this space. I will tackle an analysis of the situation from a military point of view soon.
Quote: "I believe it is fair to assume that China can successfully invade Taiwan. "
Without getting embroiled into the decades-long-much-rehashed debate, an island is one of the most difficult targets in the world to invade. This isn't like World War II, where the Allies were able to pull off D-Day at Normandy. With modern antiship defenses, rocket artillery, mobile artillery, sea mines, etc. an amphibious invasion is far more difficult today than back then, because technology and terrain favors the defender much more.
Historically, the track record of successful invasions of islands is very dismal for invaders. The British Isles, for instance, haven't been successfully invaded since AD 1066. During World War II, tiny islands like Iwo Jima and Okinawa cost a terrible price in Allied lives and took extreme amounts of resources. On top of that, since China can only ferry reinforcement troops over by sea (a small amount, typically no more than, say, 100,000 a day,) while Taiwan is a densely interconnected small island that can reinforce by half a million per day, any Chinese invasion forces are likely to be heavily outnumbered by Taiwanese reservists and partisans within days of landing.
The thing is, if you read Lonnie Henley’s analysis, there’s no reason for the CCP to rely solely on an amphibious landing. There are other tools, such as a blockade.
Another cracking piece, Angelica, which I read just as I'm polishing off my own Whither Taiwan? thumbsucker. Whatever authority I have comes from a far more distant, bigger picture context of China/Taiwan watching since my first visits there in 1984/1986, so I particularly appreciate your on-the-ground perspective as a corrective. Your Schrodinger metaphor is apposite, as Beijing's own machinations are such a big black box on their own. I regretfully conclude that Taiwan's influence over its own fate is very marginal, which must be hard to report when you're on the ground, as it's so unjust, but in general I reckon Taiwan's leaders are playing a terrible hand with immense skill. (BTW you might want to quietly change 'Kosovo' for 'Belgrade' when no-one's looking. I may be the only one who notices, but I was CNN Beijing Bureau Producer when that news broke and was vox-popping Beijing residents as dawn broke, before the news had...)
I'm aware this is nearly a half year old (just discovered). Just wanted to say: I don't disagree with a single word. This is the most convincing piece on the Taiwan-China situation I ever recall reading.
Thanks Jasper! Unfortunately, half a year later, I don’t think much has changed, fundamentally.
No, nothing's changed these past six months, from what I can tell.
Superb. Witty. Evocative. Quantum physics jokes! And full of food references, natural for anything about my beloved Taiwan. I am going to re-read this many more times. And OMG that last tweet.
Great analysis and insight. Timely after reading Monocle's interview with Enoch Wu on his view about the need to bolster Taiwan's military reserve forces. Subscribed!
What a wonderful read. Insightful too.
As for what Trump said, I assume John Bolton really wants to sell his memoirs. As with a lot of things in politics, context is everything. America may be 8,000 miles away but the 7th fleet isn't, and America and their allies have had a much more frequent presence in the region recently.
The tough think is that time wise, China is the one that is not ready now but will be better prepared and positioned in the future. Then again, an actual conventional invasion is far from the top of their list of preferences. They hope 'checkmating' Taiwan will do the job. In China's unrestricted warfare world, there is more than one way to skin a warrior cat.
It is refreshing to read a thoughtful and insightful piece (in engaging prose:), with more intellectual balance and less emotion than is usually seen in Taiwan commentary. As much as I have been pleased at the recent American outpouring of support for Taiwan, you are right to remind us what may happen if push comes to shove. It is too easy to get complacent in our recent bubble of optimism. China keeps on letting that independence envelope be pushed, but how long will it respond only with grave and somber threats? The CCP keeps on backing themselves into a corner with rhetoric-and-no-action, and I fear that the perceived pressure to back up these somber threats with action will NOT come from desire for international credibility but rather from the need for domestic credibility. (@AngelicOung - this is my first or second read of your work. I look forward to reading more. Keep up the great work. :) )
Thanks, Nigel. Watch this space for more to come. I just returned to Taiwan last year and given the overwhelming prevailing mood of complacency regarding the China threat, I assumed that the fundamentals must have somehow improved for Taiwan. Unfortunately, once I looked into it I can’t believe how much more dire things have actually gotten. I believe the Taiwanese populace simply got too exhausted being afraid all the time. This is leading to magical thinking. “China’s got its hands full with HK and Xinjiang” rather than “If the CCP went farther than we could have thought possible in HK and Xinjiang, what does it mean for their plans for Taiwan?
Watch this space. I will tackle an analysis of the situation from a military point of view soon.
Good points. I have subscribed to Taipology and I will stay tuned. :)
Looking forward to your military piece. Don't know if you're familiar with Tanner Greer's analysis, but I couldn't help but be alarmed when I read it: https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-i-fear-for-taiwan.html?m=1
Quote: "I believe it is fair to assume that China can successfully invade Taiwan. "
Without getting embroiled into the decades-long-much-rehashed debate, an island is one of the most difficult targets in the world to invade. This isn't like World War II, where the Allies were able to pull off D-Day at Normandy. With modern antiship defenses, rocket artillery, mobile artillery, sea mines, etc. an amphibious invasion is far more difficult today than back then, because technology and terrain favors the defender much more.
Historically, the track record of successful invasions of islands is very dismal for invaders. The British Isles, for instance, haven't been successfully invaded since AD 1066. During World War II, tiny islands like Iwo Jima and Okinawa cost a terrible price in Allied lives and took extreme amounts of resources. On top of that, since China can only ferry reinforcement troops over by sea (a small amount, typically no more than, say, 100,000 a day,) while Taiwan is a densely interconnected small island that can reinforce by half a million per day, any Chinese invasion forces are likely to be heavily outnumbered by Taiwanese reservists and partisans within days of landing.
The thing is, if you read Lonnie Henley’s analysis, there’s no reason for the CCP to rely solely on an amphibious landing. There are other tools, such as a blockade.
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-02/Lonnie_Henley_Testimony.pdf
How long can China feed its populace without food imports if that weapon is used against it?
Another cracking piece, Angelica, which I read just as I'm polishing off my own Whither Taiwan? thumbsucker. Whatever authority I have comes from a far more distant, bigger picture context of China/Taiwan watching since my first visits there in 1984/1986, so I particularly appreciate your on-the-ground perspective as a corrective. Your Schrodinger metaphor is apposite, as Beijing's own machinations are such a big black box on their own. I regretfully conclude that Taiwan's influence over its own fate is very marginal, which must be hard to report when you're on the ground, as it's so unjust, but in general I reckon Taiwan's leaders are playing a terrible hand with immense skill. (BTW you might want to quietly change 'Kosovo' for 'Belgrade' when no-one's looking. I may be the only one who notices, but I was CNN Beijing Bureau Producer when that news broke and was vox-popping Beijing residents as dawn broke, before the news had...)