What the *&^% is Emmanuel Macron doing?
The French president appears to be giving the US the cold shoulder, kissing China’s ass and fully prepared to throw Taiwan under the bus.
I’ve tried to be chill and reserve my judgement throughout Emmanuel Macron’s 3-day state visit to China. I know when it comes to world dictators and that in diplomacy it’s important to keep the lines of communications open even with the odious. I know also that his politesse towards Putin ultimately didn’t lead to a pro-Russian French position, let alone softened Europe’s strong resolve.
But ultimately, WTF, Macron? Quotes like “Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,” while Xi looks on approvingly is appallingly irresponsible.
It’s not that I naively believe that France will somehow race to the Indo-pacific to defend Taiwan if anything goes down, but is silence or moral support somehow too much to ask for? The way Macron talks of Europe as the “third superpower” and not wanting to become a “vassal” for America, it almost seems as if he wouldn’t hate it if China kept getting stronger: more room for a multipolar world, right?
Was Macron “framed” by Politico?
Some observers on twitter notes that Macron might have been taken out of context or poorly framed by the Political EU report that spread like a bad rash. For instance, Eric Garland on Twitter reminds us that diplomatic French is really subtle and what initially sounds like puppy dogs and rainbows are sometimes just an epic F-you.
I scrutinized the fuller interview in French by Les Echos, tho, and while more nuanced, it’s hardly any better. BTW, it sounds like Les Echos and Politico were given a joint interview that they took different things from. Excuse the google translate:
There seems to be a terrible and fundamental mistake where he assumes America is somehow the pacesetter for the increase in tensions across the Taiwan strait. I fail to see how this can be when the whole strategy of the US for decades upon decades is that of strategic ambiguity and it is still trying to cling onto strategic ambiguity long after the threadbare ruse is barely a fig leaf.
Finally, he lays out an ambition for Europe to be a third power in order to avoid becoming “vassals” of the United State. I actually have no problem with Europe wanting to build itself up geopolitically. It would be a good thing. But while Macron is dreaming of Europe the Superpower, it is still too weak to even protect itself in its own backyard (as his earlier quote highlighted).
Did he not remember what happened with the last dictator Europe tried to tame with friendship and bonbons? Yeah, that guy. He’s snarling on your doorsteps. You are actively relying on the US to keep you safe from him while also sweet-talking another dictator. How is this going to work out exactly?
You can’t look at this picture of Macron doing a meet-and-greet at some Chinese university and tell me he’s not having the time of his life. Somehow, he enjoys playing what appears to be objectively a very disempowering role: Europe’s “good cop,” tasked with keeping a smooth channel of communication going between the wannabe “third power” and the world’s most appalling dictators.
Does it even matter?
Obviously, as a Taiwanese person, I have some feelings on this issue. But taking a step back, I don’t know if any of this actually matters. Mommy von der Leyen said the blandly-correct thing on the same trip after all: “The threat [of] the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable.”
More than anything, I am annoyed by Macron’s vanity. According to Politico: ‘People familiar with Macron’s thinking said he was happy Beijing had at least waited until he was out of Chinese airspace before launching the simulated “Taiwan encirclement” exercise.’
I don’t know if that part is true or a cheap-shot by some anon, but if so, mon dieu.
Actually there’s nothing I would wish more than for Europe to legitimately step up as a third power. But to do that, it needs to shore up its economy, invest in its military. You know, actually be strong instead of playing power games.
I was impressed by the idea of European Union, middle sized countries joining together to cooperate to solve their own problems and help their neighbours. That was as a backpacker in central and Eastern Europe in the 1990's. By the time of the second gulf war, it was clear they could neither work together to persuade the US not to do it, or plan B, join up and make it overwhelming. Instead they were split. so rounding up the Europeans to give them leverage against Big USA and Big Japan may have seemed interesting in 1990, but having failed, it's time to join team democracy and work with the USA, that at last seems to have figured out it actually needs allies. He is not going to create a new pole. He will consign countries the size of Chinese provinces to irrelevance, being picked off by China one at a time. Napoleon would have known better (China is a sleeping giant quote..)
To be honest, Macron has been fairly mediocre for more than a year. But this is the icing on the cake. 1/ he does not seem to have consulted most of his European partners prior his declaration, 2/ France does not have the means to play an important role in a conflict in the indo-pacific, 3/ his approval rating in France is at an all-time low and he certainly can't engage any seismic paradigmatic shift abroad (or even in France). It is a bit in the line of what he has been doing lately, mainly talking with his arse and doing whatever he wants, very carelessly, and without measuring the consequences of his word. The idea of a greater European agency is something entrenched in France, but nothing has been achieved (such as an "European army" or whatever you want) under his mandate. I fail to see how the Ukrainian conflict, for instance, reinforced Europe's "strategic autonomy". He is really just talking crap