We have to talk about Reunification
With the silicon shield split in two, the time has come to put put what was once unsayable on the table for discussion.
Once upon a time, there was a idyllic village in the mountains, beautiful, but far from the cities. One day, after a mighty storm, the villagers noticed that a strange and unnatural body of water had formed in the mountains, a barrier lake dammed up by the falling rocks and debris from the storm and obstructing the natural flow of the local creek.
Every day, the “lake” became a little bigger. Experts came and went. It’s agreed: the barrier lake will not hold forever. But when will it breach it’s banks? Nobody knows. “Probably not something we need to worry about right now,” said the government. Besides, nobody knows how to drain a barrier lake of that size.
The problem is, the little village was right downstream of the barrier lake. Residents relocated to inadequate shelters for one false alarm after another until they got tired. When the last warning came, many refused to leave their homes. So when the the barrier lake finally broke, it unleashed a tsunami in the mountains that buried the little village, with some of the villagers still in it.
“Once upon a time” was actually last month. And they are still digging out the bodies of the stubborn villagers of Guangfu Township in Hualien. Ever since then I can’t help thinking of Taiwan as one big Guangfu Township. There has been something like a barrier lake building up above us not for weeks or months but for the past eight decades.
It’s the threat of a Chinese invasion.
The false comfort of Status Quo
Ever since the very beginning of Taipology, I’ve been firmly on the record as a status-quo enjoyer. Indeed, I made the case all the way back in 2021 that Taiwan must remain Schrodinger’s Island for regional peace and our own security: not Chinese, yet not American. We kicked the can down the road for 80 years…here’s to 80 more.
However, there’s been techtonic shifts in the world that made me conclude it is no longer responsible for us to continue to simply assume that the Status Quo can hold forever.
Let’s return to the barrier lake metaphor. China’s power has risen massively since the last Taiwan Straits Crisis in 1995-96. China was the one that got out from over its skis that time. Bill Clinton was able to send a couple of carrier groups through the Taiwan Straits and…and the Chinese backed right off. Bam! America!
The villagers, I mean, Taiwanese, flipped from panic to complacency. Ironically, that might have been the best time to boldly reach for reunification. Taiwan had about 1/50th of China’s population, just as now. But we had 40% of their GDP! A diplomatic solution reached in the 90s would have seen Taiwan with massive leverage.
But just like the villagers, we chose not to worry about the Barrier Lake getting bigger and bigger above our heads. After all, we’ve lived under that thing all our lives and nothing at all has happened yet!
Well, time has changed substantially in the intervening decades. Taiwan is now roughly only 5% of China’s GDP, meaning while GDP per capita still favors us, in terms of absolute mass, the Taiwanese economy has become a non-entity compared to the Chinese economy. The constant exhortation from the US to spend more on defense would be funny if it weren’t so infuriating. Doubling a rounding error is still a rounding error.
The weakening of the Dam
We talked about the increase in China’s military ability. But something else has changed that makes the breaching of status quo in upcoming years much more likely: America’s heel turn from a ally to a racketeer.
We’ve been fed any number of narratives about how this or that would keep Taiwan safe despite China’s growing power. Remember the like-minded democracies standing together one? That was quite popular during COVID wasn’t it? A somewhat more plausible alternative was the Silicon Shield…ie the world (but let’s be for real the US) would come to Taiwan’s aid not out of the goodness of its own heart but because the spice…I mean high-performance silicon chips…must flow.
Well. It seems like the United States thought it over and decided Taiwan is just too dangerous a place to have all this chip production. OK…we can negotiate some production to the US. But it seems nothing is ever enough for America. 50% of the most advanced chip production? Literally the US is breaking our silicon shield in half.
A small reality check…
Amongst all the Freedom and Democracy talk I felt like everybody kind of forgot what The Deal was between Taiwan and the US. Viz: we get the most powerful nation in the world shoring up the dam that stands between Taiwan and forces that would sweep us away in return for being a good little brother and thorn in the side of seeseepee China. Quite honestly 10/10 was an awesome vassalship experience for most of that ride. Taiwan got to sit out the Cultural Revolution! And we got rich early! But all good things come to an end.
I’m actually a little insulted by the Americans getting all maudlin and sentimental about the Brave Taiwanese. Dude no. We had a deal and you’re not keeping up your end. Please don’t even try to suggest that every Taiwanese pick up a musket and get handy other fpv drone operation. For Freedom and Democracy! No. We have no intention of being your loyal suicidal little red-shirts.
There’s just no good way to resolve the Taiwan straits situation that’s not on the negotiation table with the Chinese and I’m tired of pretending otherwise. So long and thanks for all the fish.
The first step on the road to Reunification
Angelica you’ve completely lost it! You want to wave the white flag and surrender? How defeatist! Don’t you love your freedom and democracy and free speech? Don’t you want Taiwan to retain its autonomy??? Why don’t you just move to China if you love authoritarianism so much???
It’s actually because I want to maximize Taiwan’s autonomy that I think we must stop the current antagonistic and avoidant approach to diplomacy and start building a frank relationship of mutual trust. Reunification need not be tomorrow. But just getting back to the table with China is like magically reducing the pressure in that barrier lake by draining off half the water.
And lets face it…to the extent Taiwan has been abandoned to our fate by America, that fate might not end up being so terrible. I mean, woe is us…being made to join up with the country that will almost certainly be the world’s top power in another quarter century at the latest.
To the Chinese, uh, I mean our fellow compatriots, let’s talk about how Taiwan’s unique history and culture make our way of life not a threat but an asset to China.
If we can get through this switcheroo without being smashed to bits like Ukraine, we’d look back and realized Taiwan pulled off the greatest Geopolitical trick of the century!
The parable of the Three Daughters
It’s way above my pay grade to suggest what might happen in the future, though I am often asked. More than that, maybe this just isn’t the time. You don’t plan the wedding before you go on the first date. I think there’s a lot of relationship building that has to go on before a proper deal between Taiwan and the Mainland can be struck.
But if I were to look into my crystal ball, I could possibly see, as one outcome amongst infinite others Mother China with three little daughters…one is meek, one is rich, and one loves freedom.
In the furious debate over One Country Two Systems, little Macau is often missed. And how she has thrived. Unlike the rebellious and haughty Hong Kong, she has been ever obedient. And as a result, she has been cosseted, spoiled and given every good bit.
Gambling. Prohibited in almost every form on the mainland. But in Macau the horses still prance and the dancers still dance (metaphorically speaking…the actual race tracks closed because the punters prefer casinos).
Is this a special favor to Macau? Or maybe a good way for China to make a little space for indulgence domestically too? Moderation in all things, so they say. Even moderation. I don’t see the bright light of Macau’s fabulous betting palaces getting any dimmer.
Hong Kong famously got slapped down for the 2019 uprising, but her capitalism has been rigorously and scrupulously respected. This is even a clearer case of advantage to China. Famously, the RMB is not convertible and the Chinese legal system quite opaque and intimidating to outsiders.
By allowing Hong Kong to remain open for business all the way, Beijing gets to tap foreign capital frictionlessly like a little cash box while keeping the main vault locked.
Through the example of those two daughters that’s been brought back into the fold, we may hypothesize how a third, still wayward, one might one day return to the family without losing the freedoms she has been accustomed to.
So if Macau can be a part of China, yet apart from China and serve the greater whole as a limited release valve for the vice of gambling, and Hong Kong can serve as a firewalled finance hub, why can Taiwan not serve as China’s laboratory for free thinking and, yes, even electoral democracy?
China is large. It can contain multitudes.
The fistfights in the legislature would be a hard one to get people on the mainland to accept. Although perhaps it can be sold as a kind of sporting entertainment. The freedom of speech, I think, would be ultimately of great value and protect China from excessive groupthink and sclerosis decades into the future. Thinking dynastically, Taiwan can be an entrepot of ideas that brings the globe to China like the thriving, cosmopolitan Tang dynasty and help it avoid the stagnant isolation of the Qing dynasty that ultimately led to its downfall.
Taiwan has always been the sparsely-governed borderlands for China. It would not be ahistorical, I think, for the island to retain that character of wildness, as long as she admits she is a part of China and always will be.
The example of Macau is compelling - except that gambling does not run directly counter to the Party’s operating methods. It can be glowing and quiet in the corner without threatening the larger political order.
The problem (for Beijing) is that a robustly democratic and free speech embracing Taiwan is simply not controllable. They’d never know what would come out of its mouth, what it would begin demanding, etc. You can’t actually have a robust democracy if at the end of the day, the overlord can just say no to most things. Whatever leverage you had when forming a good deal or not is irrelevant because once you join up, you really don’t have any real leverage anymore.
This is best seen in Hong Kong’s example - why every Executive in power is doomed to fail because they’re torn between what Bejing demands and what large swaths of voters desire.
And if the democratic process becomes something unacceptable to Beijing, they’ll come in and render 40-50 percent of it illegal.
What would actually happen between Taiwan and Beijing, in the scenario you propose, is Taiwan leverages whatever it thinks it can to arrange a somewhat acceptable deal. And then those terms become increasingly irrelevant over time.
Angelica, what do you see as the likely concrete outcome of such a scenario?
If you read the proposals for unification on the Beijing, even in the most liberal scenario it is basically a 1C2S SAR under the PRC with Beijing ultimately in control (see the 台灣特別行政區 Wikipedia pages which refer to 2022 white papers). The largest unification voices in Taiwan have always been "blue unification" under ROC or another non-PRC framework. Even the New Party, the most pro-unification party (that isn't being banned), proposed a name of "中國" for the new state (as opposed to PRC). This is basically unacceptable to Beijing, who also sees a confederation or anything else as not OK for actual "unification". Even if there continue to be elections, the ruling party today and most of its politicians will be banned (this is still very different from HK, where independence was always a fringe sentiment).
Economically, TSMC would likely lose access to ASML and world chip supply chain and Taiwan would fall under all existing PRC-targeted sanctions (PRC including Hong Kong and Macau are banned from buying ASML EUVs, cannot receive advanced NVIDIA chips, etc.). US would focus manufacturing with Samsung, Intel et al and take a few years' hit from the most advanced node. This would be a huge blow to the Taiwan economy, which is heavily dependent on this Western supply chain and market access (as opposed to casino Macau).
The capitalist economy and general pattern of life (separate household registration, immigration, currency, etc.) might stay, there would be many more 陸客, there would be some type of CSSTA (which was dumped after the 2014 protests) would come and you would see many mainland businesses like Didi or Meituan enter the market.