War in our time
What watching the war in Ukraine from Taipei taught me
Where were you, anon, when you took the Ukraine flag off your bio?
I think for many of us, it's when we realized that there are two wars going on...the propaganda war in the western media full of feel-good stories of plucky Ukrainian resilience versus the actual war on the ground, where Ukrainians are fighting and dying while being set up for failure by delayed weapons deliveries, unrealistic expectations of victory, and refusal to negotiate when leverage still existed.
I no longer go to pro-Ukrainian protests. But I track the war obsessively. I follow the frontline changes every day and soon realized with the sinking heart that it’s we in the west that’s been fed propaganda.
It would be much easier for me not to speak up on this. Stick to my lane. Stick to Taiwan. Stick to China. Stick to energy. But I can't choose silence when in my opinion lives are being wasted.
Kill Boxes and Impossible Salients
If you follow the excellent daily update videos of Defense Politics Asia, you'll notice a curious phenomenon. Ukrainian defenders will hold on to a location as Russian forces flank them like a pincer. You'd expect the pincer to close, or for the Ukraininan defenders to retreat before that can happen. But something more curious happens. The Russians forces appear to have no great appetite for taking the territory. Instead, the pincers extend, leaving the Ukrainian defenders in what is now called an "impossible salient." But as Defense Politics Asia says..."Impossible salient is impossible." At some point, you realize the guys in there are dead. Or as good as dead.
This happened again and again. Bakhmut. Adiivka. Chasiv Yar. I think Pokrovsk soon. It takes the Russians absolutely AGES to take each town. Ukrainians boast "yeah, we've turned them into killboxes...meatgrinders for the Russians." Excuse me. If you are the ones INSIDE the impossible salient, you are the one that's being killboxed. If you're the one who don't get the command to retreat before retreat becomes impossible, you are the meat inside the meatgrinder.
Kursk, the Stupidest Kill Box of all
Who remembers the jubilant headlines of Ukrainian troops doing a switcheroo and head into Kursk? Oh, all the NAFO accounts had a field day. Instantly, same day I believe, WillyOAM pointed out the utter idiocy of the campaign. You are telling me that you are fighting a war of attrition and you're already spread thin and you choose to take some of your best guys and yolo it into a bunch of potato fields?
The Russians didn't even bother shutting it down quickly. Just let the Ukrainian elite units hang out until they can get picked off by second unit guys. In the meantime, the Russians pushed harder than ever on the Eastern front. And now does Ukraine even hold any of Kursk? No...they've been pushed entirely out and the Russians have now created a new front in Sumy. What was it all for?
I’m not defeatist, I’m counting
Again and again I've been told…look how much the Russians suck. Look how little those front lines have moved. Yeah. It's because they are fighting a war of attrition and the Russians have the numerical, artillary and drone advantage despite the Ukrainian's western supplies. I believe it's 3-1 advantage still for artillery for the Russians. "Oh but it's better artillary" -- no with artillery first you need enough.
I don't know how close we are to the endgame. But it is going to happen when Ukraine can no longer hold on to their lines. And when it happens, the collapse will be like the breaking of a dam.
We know the Ukrainians are straining for men. They've resisted and resisted conscripting the 18-25 year olds because when you do that you are really eating your seed corn as a country. But the yoinking of randos off the streets of Odesa are now pretty normal. Meanwhile, the Russian have better, longer training and are rotated regularly on and off so they can rest.
You tell me how it’s going to end…
"But Angelica. You can't be defeatist. If we are not doing enough, then we should be doing more." Gurl it's 2025. We could have done more in 2022...2023 certainly. At this point...
Don't tell me "oh but the GDP of Russia is that of Italy, surely..." or "Russia can't possibly last..." or worst of all "Putin is losing power..." we've heard it over and over for the last 3 years and more.
The shape that the new Ukraine will take is not what any of us wished it would be the year the war started in 2022. The Ukrainians truly earned our support and assistance with their bravery. They inspired the world. But life is not a movie and we are not on track to a fairytale ending.
Cards on the table
As I write this, several things are happening at the same time. It’s been announced that Putin will meet with Trump in Alaska next week. At the very least, he wants Donetsk and Crimea to as a pre-condition to starting real negotiations, or so it’s been leaked. Zelenskyy already took to twitter to say that’s impossible, that he will not give up land that Russians couldn’t take in 3 years.
At the same time, the transit hub city of Pokrovsk is surrounded on three sides by Russians. Other Donetsk cities are similarly embroiled in caldrons. The Russians, almost taunting the fact that their manpower is so ample compared to the Ukrainians, attack here and there…probing…testing…or just to make the Ukrainians move their limited force to defend.
The lines have become so stretched out Russian DRGs take advantage of gaps in frontline coverage to sneak way behind Ukrainian lines. I saw a video of a group getting taken out four kilometers behind the front lines…that’s right in the middle of the city, practically.
Here’s the thing about not giving up Pokrovsk and the rest of Donetsk at the negotiation table because the Russians haven’t taken them physically. By the time they are taken physically, the Russians will be asking for something more to stop the fighting and the Ukrainians will have one less card to play in their hand.
What does victory look like for the Ukrainians? What would make the Ukrainians feel whole? 2014 borders? 2022 borders? I think all but the most deluded NAFO types have given up on the Crimean beach party. What about more Ukrainians left alive to live?
I’d like to end this piece with a quote by Brazilian analyst Patricia Morin:
Ukraine has heroically slowed Russia’s advance, but it must negotiate, as there is no prospect of victory, and a nation cannot depend on allies for its finances. It is time to turn the page and restore sovereignty.
The war ends not when the government decides, but when people refuse to fight, when funds run dry, when equipment is nearly gone, and, above all, when victory is no longer possible. Under these circumstances, Ukraine must seek the best position to negotiate.
A good deal is possible, as Russia’s relations with the West, which still trades with Moscow, involve many complex factors. Trump has the power to build a good deal for Ukraine, putting on the table frozen assets, energy trade, sanctions and a vast list of Russian interests.
A repeat of the Winter War more or less looked likely since at least 2023. Overall Russia, despite massively more military material taking relatively higher losses. But if the absolute number of losses is not sustainable for the other side then they may make concessions for peace.
Ukraine may be in a hard place. But don’t underestimate how much this hurts for Russia too. If it was not the case then there would be no prospect of a negotiation. I guess I will believe it is for real when Russia doesn’t make demands for Ukraine to demilitarize. Till then of course Ukraine must say they will give nothing.
Hi Angelica excellent article. I wish more people would keep a more open mind and look at what is actually happening in the world rather than what they would like to happen.
To understand the Ukraine war, you need to understand the mind set of the American foreign policy and military elite. They all essentially believe that the US has a moral obligation to remain the world's foremost military and economic power. How this is to be achieved can be and is debated but the basic premiss is not allowed to be questioned.
Anyone who still thinks US foreign and defence policy is based on human rights should look at Gaza and the genocide taking place there. Anyone in the US with the most limited interest in human rights would have stopped supplying bombs for that genocide long ago.
If you ask yourself how the US can retain primacy over the rest of the world, then US foreign policy becomes understandable. Obviously to retain primacy you must weaken and destroy any possible rivals. In 2018 a RAND corporation paper titled "Weakening Russia" suggested provoking a full war between Ukraine and Russia as one possible way to weaken Russia. Unsurprisingly that is exactly what happened a few years later. Ukraine has bn used to weaken Russia at incredible cost to the Ukrainian people.
US Foreign Policy has nothing to do with human rights or democracy. Russia has democratic elections and there is no question Putin is far more popular in Russia than Trump (or Biden) is in the US. Biden's talk about democracy and autocracy was always pure hypocrisy.
For the US Taiwan is next in line for the Ukraine treatment. It will be used as a means to weaken China at incredible cost to the people on both sides of the Taiwan strait.