The Birds of War Unleashed

India and Pakistan are on the brink of war. Could Made-in-China weapons be the differencemaker for Pakistan the underdog?

TO THE BEST OF MY UNDERSTANDING what happened was IAF struck “terrorist sites” in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir last night in what they call “Operation Sindoor.” Sindoor is the vermillion powder Indian women put on their foreheads after they marry, marking the operation as revenge for the 26 Hindu men slaughtered in a terrorist attack last month in Kashmir, which left a number of widows.

Not all the jets made it back to base though. According to Pakistan, they took down 5 Indian fighter jets: Three French Rafael, a MiG-29 and a Su-30. India refused to confirm any of this.

India vs. Pakistan: the fleet in numbers

In absolute numbers, the Indian Air Force dominates with 513 fighter jets vs 328 for Pakistan. What’s more, they’ve got some real nice birds. 36 French Rafales (Gen 4.5) is the jewel in the crown. About 270 Russian Gen 4 Su-30MKI provides a solid backbone. Then you get a mishmash…indigenous HAL Teja (solid Gen 4), a bunch of older MiGs.

The Pakistani? Not gonna even count the Mirages cuz they are ooooold. 75 F16s which sounds great until you realize they’re handcuffed: US sold them to Pakistan for counter terrorism only. Not supposed to use them against India.

That leaves the Chinese jets: around 50 Chengdu J-10Cs, a Gen 4.5 modern fighter selected to go up against the elite Rafales but not considered as good. Then as the backbone you’ve got about 150 partially-indigenous JF-17 Thunders (known as FC-1 Xiaolong in Chinese) which are kind of like Temu F-16s.

I am dying…dying to know what the actual matchups were. According to the Pakistanis the downed birds include 3 Rafales, a MiG-29 and a Su-30. Again all this is yet unconfirmed but if true holy shit! The Rafale costs at least twice (some say 7 times) as much as the J-10C! We’ve never really seen the J-10C in battle before. We don’t know what it’s made of. Can it really be true that it went toe to toe with a Rafale and bested it?

Again…caution caution caution. We don’t have anything independently confirmed. India is crying fake news but why are three of your birds on the ground?

Chinese Gamechangers?

If confirmed, this is the first time the Chinese jets like J-10C got battle-tested. There’s always been a lot of skepticism about the Chinese jets ever since the war in Ukraine and Russia’s Gen 4+ birds massively underperformed. This lead some to believe the Chinese are just peddling paper planes too. But there is some evidence on twitter that it was indeed a J-10C carrying PL-15E air-to-air missiles that brought down the French aristocrats of the air.

I’m quoting now a screenshot from a self-identified “Chinese propaganda account.” But to tell you the truth it’s all propaganda out there and she seems to have the pics to prove her point. Other accounts showed fragments of downed jets that appear to be at least one Rafale.

M.A.D. dogs and the subcontinent

I’ve been told again and again that actual war can never break out between India and Pakistan because they are both nuclear-armed countries. Well, excuse me for being just a little bit paranoid right about now.

The alliance between the two sides is hilarious: Russia and the US support India while China and Turkey are backing Pakistan. But make no mistake…there’s only one party looking to beef here and that’s India. And at this point, I can’t trust that they’re a rational actor.

I’m really disquieted by the disproportionate and logic-blinding rage I’m see from most Indian accounts rn. Many are becoming detached from reality.

Yo! How do you think investors who decided they might invest in India because you’re playing ball with America on the tariffs are feeling right now? Let me tell you. They’re thinking « holy shit is it too late for me to pull my money out? »

India has won all the major wars against Pakistan so far. But this time just might be different. From what I’ve seen, I think Pakistan has the advantage in the air. Those cheap Chinese jets work.

Of course, India have an overwhelming advantage when it comes to manpower if it turns into a serious ground war. But guess what we found out in Ukraine? Cheap drones are the big difference-maker and I can tell you the Chinese accounts I follow are rubbing their hands with glee at all the pieces of kit they get to field test in this conflict. They are openly calling it a big infomercial for Chinese military equipment.

The most stupid is the suspension of the Indus water treaty. 80 percent of Pakistan’s water comes from that river. Ok you don’t care about starving Pakistani, don’t you care about the precedent you are setting? The Chinese are building the world’s largest hydroelectric dam in South Tibet. When that is complete they can choke the headwaters of the Brahmaputra river just like you can choke Pakistan today. Please India….de-escalate now.

What it means for Taiwan

If it all pans out and we are indeed seeing a new generation of ridiculously cheap yet highly effective Chinese jets, it’s just another thing that puts Taiwan more at a disadvantage in a cross-straits conflict situation. If the Chinese achieved the quality and are unbeatable on price, it’s making Taiwan’s strategy of spending the bulk of our dollars on overpriced American arms that might be legacy by the time we get it look more quixotic than ever.

More and more I feel like retired Admiral Lee Hsi-Ming is vindicated. Taiwan must have small, desposible, autonomous weapons. It is also in my opinion that we should make them domestically. This really should have started ten years ago.

Having said that it’s never too late to head in the right direction. Taiwan has the industrial base and the manufacturing know-how. Let’s stop paying through the nose for clunky American museum pieces and start making our own drones while also saving more money to pay our defense personnel better and tackle the recruitment crisis.