Strange Animal Friends: Can Hou and Ko cooperate?
Together, they have enough votes to win, separately they don’t. But can the KMT’s Hou You-Yi and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je find enough common ground to stand on a unity ticket?
Yesterday something I thought was an utter political impossibility happened: Hou You-Yi, New Taipei City Mayor and the KMT’s presidential candidate for 2024, conceded for the first time that in the event of a “unity ticket” between him and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je, Hou doesn’t necessarily need to be on top.
The poll below is just a snapshot in time from a few weeks ago but this has basically been the same dynamic since May. Individual candidates come up a little or down a little. The undecideds ebb and swell. Even Taiwanese Mogul Terry Guo entering the race in August didn’t change it that significantly. The dynamic is this: if the Ko camp (in white, the TPP colors) and the Hou camp (in blue, the KMT colors) can combine forces, they have enough votes to handily defeat Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, in green) candidate. Apart, they’re in a race for 2nd and 3rd.
It’s quite understandable then that grassroots pressure for them to form a “Blue-White” unity ticket has been strong all along. The electoral math is out there for all to see. Why hasn’t it happened yet? Well, until yesterday, the KMT has been absolutely unshakeable in their contention that any unity ticket will see their candidate at the top of the ticket. This seems fair enough on one hand: they are the bigger, more established party bringing more legislators to the table by far. On the other hand, Ko has been steadily leading Hou in the polls. Why should he be satisfied with Veep?
It had appeared that the non-DPP parties are going to squabble until Election Day, allowing Lai to “get elected lying down” — free to munch on popcorn while doing the odd softball interview to warm up for his first presidential term. But yesterday, the impossible happened. Hou conceded for the first time that he doesn’t necessarily have to be on the top of the ticket. Admittedly, he did so in a pretty yucky way, printing out sample ballots of a “primary” vote between the “Hou-Ko” ticket with him on top visit the “Ke-Hou” ticket with him as veep. He also gave Ko an ultimatum: agree by tomorrow or else!
Let me tell you why this cross-party “primary” is so disingenuous. Ko has been leading in the polls pretty much all along apart from a few outliers. However, in a “primary,” it’s going to be pretty easy for the KMT to come out on top. They have more resources, including regional offices, at their disposal and a much stronger grass-roots network to turn out. Ko immediately decried the ultimatum as the KMT trying to force a “shotgun marriage” on him. What Ko would prefer is a unity ticket with whoever is topping the polls as president.
“This is a big party bullying a smaller party,” said Ko, “the reason the DPP spiraled downwards is because of their arrogance. I don’t wish to replace one arrogant administration with another.”
At this point communication between the two sides seems to be conducted by dueling press conferences. Hou and the KMT shot back three hours later, with Hou saying in the presser: “this is not a shotgun marriage…I’ve been waiting for you for a long time.”
The marital metaphor got extended play, arguably to an uncomfortable degree:
“All of Taiwan has been waiting for you to come to the altar. Now we’re speaking of the dowry and the bride price. I’ve been waiting for you as a future spouse. But it’s strange…Chairman Ko has been visiting…the Guo household. It makes me wonder if the spouse-to-be is me.”
“Can I ask, Chairman Ko, am I the one you are going to marry?”
I’ll give you a moment to get over your full-body cringe after that one. I’m sure there will be a press conference from Ko himself soon, but this is my analysis:
Hou and the KMT are being awfully disingenuous with their “let the people decide” primary. I can understand having a primary within your party to decide the presidential candidate, although you’ve chosen not to do that in this or any previous election cycles. But in the formation of a unity ticket and all the delicate political wrangling that entails, why would your potential partner want to be forced into a hasty vote where you have the advantage?
Fundamentally the problem is this: for both the KMT and TPP, being on the bottom of the ticket is a terrible consolation prize that might be a Pyrrhic victory not better than losing. On the KMT side, conceding the presidency to the upstart TPP would consolidate their position as a permanent major party on the same footing as DPP and KMT. Since TPP takes more from KMT votes, it means allowing a permanent rival to ensconce themselves. On the TPP side, taking the vice presidency in a KMT administration, maybe with a few extra cabinet level positions thrown in, means losing their identity as a small but independent party. After that, they would only ever be thought of as a “wing party” of the KMT, much like the Taiwan Statebuilding Party and the New Power Party are thought of as “wings” of the DPP.
And that’s in the best case scenario if they win! If they lose, the TPP would then have compromised their independence for nothing. And let’s remember electoral maths is not 1 to 1: There are plenty of TPP voters who detest the KMT and KMT voters who would never vote for TPP in a billion years. Whether it’s Ko or Hou on top, the whole will not be as strong as the sum of its parts.