Epic Recall, Epic Fail

The DPP bet the farm on trying to flip the legislature their way by recalling an unprecedented number of KMT legislators. Mistakes were made.

Expectations were turned upside down as the Epic Recall failed.

“Epic Recall, Epic Win!” (大罷免，大成功) was almost an inescapable battle cry for the last few months in Taiwan. Everywhere you went there were bright-eyed bushy-tailed young volunteers asking you if you’d like to recall your local KMT legislator to “protect Taiwan and Counter China” because “they’re all in cahoots with the CCP” and “we have to protect our democracy before its too late.”

Well today was Recall Election Day and to my HUGE surprise, not a single one of the 24 KMT legislators up for recall were successfully sniped. Not even Yeh Yuan Chih, Freshman KMT legislator from the super-green Banchiao district. His nickname became “soft persimmon” because it was known he was the low-hanging fruit when it comes to recalls. I think Yeh is even surprised Yeh made it, albeit with a slim margin.

There’s going to be another round of 7 KMT legislators up for recall on 8/23, but not only have the momentum gone out of the whole venture, it’s also exceedingly unlikely that they’ll convert at least six KMT legislators into DPP legislators in order for the DPP to flip the legislature.

The Surprise Sweep

Pro-Recall supporter surprised as the results came in

I’ve actually tried to spend less of my one wild and precious life paying attention to the low-stakes yet bizarrely byzantine world of Taiwanese politics. So I’ll be lying if I said I’ve been tracking the polls or anything. But JUST ON VIBES I thought thought the recalls would snipe at least three or four KMT legislators. The bars are exceedingly low due to stupid procedural reasons and the recall groups have been exceedingly motivated and organized, as seen by the fact that they successfully collected enough petitions to recall a total of 31 KMT legislators while no DPP legislators’ recall efforts came up with enough valid signatures at the petition stage.

I really didn’t like these recalls. I called them the Sore Loser recalls because they’re all about the DPP trying to flip the legislature back to their control. In my mind, recalls are supposed to be reserved for serious malfeasance or incompetence. Not because you didn’t like the result of the election, which by the way was less than a year ago. I expected that most people didn’t like them either for that reason. Can’t Taiwan have just one year free of elections? We have local elections again next year. People are tired.

The Revenge of the Impurities

“Through the process of elections and recall elections, ballot by ballot, we will remove the impurities like forging iron into steel, and this is how we will defend our country…” was what President Lai Ching-te said ahead of the recalls, displaying a dismaying misunderstanding of basic metallurgy. You have to ADD stuff to iron to make steel, not just remove impurities. It is an alloy.

TPP Influencer Gym Boss at an anti-Recall rally

A lot of people were pissed off by that remark, and I don’t think it was because of the scientific incorrectness. At a Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) anti-recall rally I went to, a bunch of people were wearing T-shirts with the slogan “I am the impurity.”

In general, I think people got very sick and tired of the DPP playing the China card over and over again. I think they’ve been running on “Countering China and Protecting Taiwan” for as many cycles as I can remember now, while smearing everyone who doesn’t support them as commie-sympathizers.

“We are the impurities aren’t we?” The host asked the crowd at the rally. The crowd roared Yes.

“We are the commie sympathizers aren’t we?” The crowd roared Yes again.

Wait…are we? There’s some irony here, but also some negative polarization.

I should explain that the TPP is Taiwan’s Third Party and traditionally prides itself on being neither “blue” nor “green.” The party has always been dominated by young people dissatisfied with how cross-straits issues overwhelms everything else in Taiwan.

People generally think of the TPP as less anti-China than the DPP and less pro-China than the KMT. But I think that’s changing as the DPP is pushing them together as a block with the KMT. Exactly zero TPP legislators (although one mayor) is in the recall but everybody showed up passionately to be a good ally to the counter-recall efforts.

I wouldn’t be surprised if TPP solidarity was a key factor in how the KMT legislators prevailed today.

What’s next for Taiwan?

I feel like if the DPP didn’t like dealing with the KMT/TPP alliance in the legislature before, they are going to find them an absolute menace now. Let’s face it. When you tried to take your political enemies down by rather underhanded procedural means with a liberal helping of partisan smears, you can’t expect them to be NICER to you upon returning.

Also, all the legislators who survived their recalls are now ineligible to be recalled for the next two years, setting up the delicious possibility that should the KMT get their organizational game tight next year or the year after, they can try for mass recalls of the DPP while their own legislators are completely invulnerable. (For the sake of all of our sanities, I hope this does not happen but it’s funny to think about.)

So…expect more legislative gridlock and maybe a melee or two. I’m really glad Legislator “Soft Persimmon” Yeh made it. He can try and redeem himself from the time he was absolutely manhandled by Legislator Lai Hui-Yuan of the DPP.

You know what would make the people happy? If they just got to governing instead of grandstanding and brawling and actually tried to form a consensus instead of shouting each other down and trying to achieve absolute power. I mean, isn’t that what democracy is supposed to be about?

Instead, you have DPP-supporters muttering darkly about there are more traitors in Taiwan than they thought and they might have to immigrate somewhere else with tears in their eyes etc etc. Dude. This is how democracy works. Suck it up and please don’t go Yoon Suk Yeol on us.