Don and Ben's Excellent Adventure?

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before—the U.S. has to go into a Middle Eastern country starting with “I” because WMDs

There’s something bleakly familiar about the drumbeat to war we’re hearing again. Another Middle Eastern country, another shadowy weapons program, another round of breathless speculation that this time, it’s just too dangerous not to act.

What’s unfortunately different is that unlike the Iraq War of 2003, the impetus dragging the US military-industrial machine into action seems to be coming not from Washington, but Jerusalem.

When questioned by Tucker Carlson about the population of Iran, Senator Ted Cruz stammered he didn’t know. Like, at all.

“You don’t know the population of the country you seek to…topple?” asked Tucker incredulously.

MAGA Gotcha

The answer is, no, no he didn’t. Neither does he know the ethnic composition, which by the way is of critical importance.

“You’re the one who doesn’t know anything about the country,” Cruz snapped back in the extraordinary interview, “You’re the one who claims they’re not trying to murder Donald Trump.”

Which is why “We are carrying out strikes on them today!” Wait…isn’t it Israel that’s carrying out strikes on Iran? Who is “we” here Senator?

Netanyahu’s Game

Donald Trump was against Benjamin Netanyahu’s war before he was for it. In fact, Washington and Tehran were in the middle of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions around the issue of Iran’s nuclear program before Israel’s “pre-emptive” strikes on the 13 killed many top generals and nuclear scientists, including members of the negotiation team.

But surprisingly, despite the flak Trump recieved from his “America First” faction, Trump has U-turned to join in on Israel’s beat-down on Iran, at least rhetorically. Can an actual commitment to join Israel in war be far behind?

This is just my conjecture: Trump is anti-war by inclination and was genuinely in talks with Iran to find a path to nuclear de-escalation. Israel short-circulated that with their pre-emptive strikes, which were wildly successful. Trump then instantly changed his tune to get behind Israel.

Some sees this as proof those earlier negotiation attempts were just to lull Iran into a false sense of security. But it’s equally likely that Trump is just low on object permanence.

Switching on a dime to back Israel is just wanting to get in on a W. But isn’t it disastrous that Trump flipped so impulsively to war on Israel’s interests and tempo? Maybe. But should things go south, why Trump might simply flip again. A reminder: the trade war he declared on the world to great fanfare 2 months ago is technically still ongoing.

So maybe instead of trying to figure Trump out, we should ask what is Bibi Netenyahu trying to do? In the best-case scenario, what is a War on Iran at the point in time supposed to accomplish?

Bomb Bomb Iran

First of all, I think after the debacle of Iraq and Afghanistan, there is ZERO appetite for boots on the ground action, especially as it would seem to be for Israel’s behalf, not America’s own national interest. By the way Iran is 4x time of Iraq with 3x the population (90 million, as Senator Ted Cruz didn’t know).

Ok very well then, bomb bomb Iran. Let’s say we completely fracture the ruling regime by bombing and assassinating the entire leadership, enough to consider it toppled.

If we are not going to do an occupation, a power vacuum has been created. What is going to fill that power vacuum? There’s some talk of the Shah coming back and somehow linking hands with the mass of people who don’t like the mullahs. But the problem is, I don’t see any organizational muscle or force there. They are going to be pushed over by the first group of fighters. I think the most likely candidate to be the group of fighters will be Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) remnants.

Let’s recall that they are a pretty organized yet tactically decentralized. Even if you nuke Tehran, remnants are going to grow another head like a hydra. So what else is possible? Dropping some bunker busters on the Uranium Enrichment facilities at Fordow and calling it a day?

It could certainly set back the program some, but destroy it? Nah. So you are handing the threshold program to the post-ayatollah IRGC-warlord state whose top priority would be to nuke up.

I say if you don’t have a plan to completely kill, dominate and manage the aftermath, go to the negotiation tables. Lots of possible gains there. The Iranians are indeed weakened and desperate.

But there is just no clear path to a good ending there. What was the time we toppled a regime without occupation and produced a friendly successor state?

The Audacity of Nope

I don't think it is controversial any more to say that the Israel lobby has a disproportional influence on American politics.

America also happens to be reluctantly pulled towards a war in Iran, with the timing and manner seemingly dictated by Netanyahu rather than our own national interests.

It's well past time we look at the connection between those two things, and how utterly unacceptable they are together.

IF FOR NO OTHER REASON

America should not join Israel's war on Iran because of the way it has foisted on us as an urgent matter in which we have no say. Until we actually find out what’s going on and what taking such precipitous action might mean for American interests, America must bet the America that can say No.