Did Ko betray himself?
With the “blue-white” alliance finally brokered, the opposition’s chances of winning just went up. So why does Ko Wen-je look so defeated?
Former Taipei mayor and third-party presidential candidate Ko Wen-je always said he hated back-room dealmaking. Ironically, it was just in such a room, with even his closest aides excluded, that he ended up making one of the most consequential decisions of his political career.
In a deal brokered by former president Ma Ying-jeou, Ko and KMT candidate Hou You-yi finally agreed on an alliance that will see them attempt to consolidate their respective support base in a unity ticket. Who is to be the candidate on the top of the ticket? That would be determined through the polls, as Ko has insisted all along. But Ko also made some key concessions with the rules of the game, such as polls within the margin of error counting as a point for Hou.
He might have realized only belatedly with the help of his top aides that were excluded from the negotiations that he gave too much away.
“In the polls I’ve seen I’m always ahead, so I thought it shouldn’t be a problem to concede the margin of error to them. But back at the headquarters I was met with tears and staffers saying they’ll resign. They said I conceded too much.”
“Ko Wen-je betrayed Ko Wen-je,” was the pronouncement of veteran commentator Huang Wei-han. Huang had boldly predicted the utter impossibility of a blue-white coalition based on Ko’s own words, saying that he would fight to the last and asking his supporters to stand with him.
“Yes, he most probably would lose in the absence of an alliance,” said Huang, “but sometimes there is value in loss when it is done on your own terms.”
Ko has repeatedly reiterated that he wants to establish a new force in Taiwanese politics — neither blue nor green — but with this alliance, if Hou do indeed land at the top of the ticket despite Ko leading in the polls over Hou at just about every step of the way, Ko has compromised the independence of not just himself, but perhaps also of his insurgent Taiwan People’s Party.
The die is not yet cast…the results will be revealed on Saturday I believe (forgive the lack of concreteness, I am typing this post with my thumbs on a phone while traveling and it is very tedious to go back and forth between browsers). It is possible that Ko would land on the top of the ticket after all. In that case, the play would have been a good one.
But it’s telling to observe the differing reactions between the Blue (KMT) and White (TPP) camps: blue supporters are jubilant, many praising Ko to the stars for finally seeing sense. In Ko’s online spaces however, you see more shock, anger and even disgust at their candidate compromising with an opponent he previously treated with barely concealed contempt. Many are vowing that they will not vote for a unity ticket with Hou on the top of the ticket.
Ko’s solo presser after the fact was incredibly intense. It’s obvious that he’s under tremendous pressure and he broke down several times. At one point (see screenshot) his former deputy mayor Huang Shan Shan raised her hands up to cover her face as if in horror.
On the other side of the political table, Lai Ching-te must have been jolted out of his complacency by now. No matter how ill-suited the match or how sketchy the process, his two enemies have now pledged to join forces against him. A certain amount of vote leakage from the unity ticket is inevitable, but with Lai’s own support base unenergized and lackluster it might not take all that much to pip him.
In this light, maybe Ko’s decision that made everybody so disappointed in him makes some sense after all: politics is the art of the possible. By bending to an alliance under less than equal circumstances, Ko has kept the possibility of victory alive.
Let's see Saturday, but if he is on the bottom of the ticket, he really screwed himself and the TPP (and I have a feeling that ticket will lose to Lai)
I think supposedly the idea is KMT and TPP will push for more reforms to become more of parliamentary democracy in the future. That would be good for TW. We can then have 8-9 parties and they can form coalitions in parliament and everyone can vote for highly specific parties