Between Green and Blue: What’s next for Taiwan’s third-force TPP?
Can the Taiwan People’s Party’s overcome the odds and stay relevant?
January’s Taiwanese elections left each of the parties with something to celebrate and something to regret.
For the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), it’s a historical victory! Term-limited President Tsai Ing-wen has passed the torch to President-elect Lai Ching-te, the first time any party in Taiwan managed to hang on to power for a third term. But Lai was voted in with only 40% of the vote, compared to 57% for Tsai in 2020 and his party does not have control of the legislature. The first results in a weaker perceived mandate while the second is more consequential as it will hinder his ability to pass laws.
For the DPP’s long-time opponent, the Kuomingtang (KMT), they can celebrate escaping the humiliation of being beaten by the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in the presidential race and also eking out a plurality in the legislature, which eventually resulted in former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu becoming the legislative speaker, not nothing as a consolation prize.
TPP standard-bearer Ko Wen-je lead the uncharismatic KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih for most of the way but fumbled and faded badly in the last leg of the election with a botched unity ticket that fell apart leaving all the participants looking devious, stupid or both. His polls plummeted and he came in third with 26% of the vote. Even so, there is quite a bit to celebrate for the TPP: there was no wholesale abandonment of Ko-voters for Hou.
This augurs well for the young party’s political staying power, showing they have a ‘core’ constituent that is not satisfied with either the KMT or the DPP as an alternative. And the TPP did well enough ensure eight “party list” legislators in the 113-member Legislative Yuan, setting them up for the kingmaker role as their votes can make the difference between KMT or DPP victory in the legislature. How will they use this power? And will it be enough to save the TPP from the collapse that has been the eventual fate of all third-force parties in Taiwan thus far?
Beyond Ko
James Soong actually came tantalizingly close to winning the election in 2000, but his People First Party was never more than a vehicle for Soong and faded soon into irrelevance. The TPP is acutely aware of the fact that they need to foster new stars beyond Ko to grow strong. Of the new batch of eight legislators, “the two Huangs” are by far the best-known and most experienced.
Huang Kuo-chang is the legal eagle former Sunflower Movement leader who ditched the dwindling New Power Party to join the TPP. With his crusader persona and strong internet following, Huang now often take the lead in TPP news conferences and such. He has a reputation for being a thorough and justice-oriented muckraker and has set a high tone right off the bat for the TPP caucus, demanding promises of transparency and legislative reforms before cooperating with either of the KMT/DPP duopoly.
Huang Shan-shan was Ko’s deputy mayor and scored a respectable 25% in the 2022 Taipei mayoral elections. In the end after no deal was reached with either the KMT or DPP, the TPP nominated Huang Shan-shan as legislative speaker. For a while the outrageous yet tantalizing idea of doing an end-run around the KMT by having all the DPP legislators vote for Huang as speaker was in the air. But as alliances with the TPP have an unfortunate habit of doing, things fell apart. This time with so much messy recrimination about who called who and said what that it’s now been dubbed “telephonegate” in the press.
This brings us to the problem of the TPP trying to wield its power as kingmaker…
The importance of staying independent
When the 2010 general election resulted in a hung parliament in the UK, the Liberal Democrats jumped at the rare chance to be actually in power. Playing the kingmaker, it entered into full coalition with the Tories. But that power came at a steep price: the Lib Dems had to make so many policy compromises for the coalition that their base was left disgusted and their popularity took a hit it has never recovered from.
The power to be kingmaker is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it allows the TPP to leverage their limited power. On the other hand, if they enter into such a tight coalition with either the KMT or the DPP they become seen as a “wing” of that party, then that is the first step onto a downward spiral that will cause them to lose all their support. TPP has made it clear that they are willing to ally, but only on a case-by-case basis. This means it’s very difficult to say if they are going to be swaying things to the blue or the green side.
Air Force vs Ground Force
All 8 of the TPP’s new legislators have something in common: they didn’t win an election but were instead chosen through the Party List. The closest the TPP came to actually winning a district was Tsai Pi-ru, a longtime collaborator for Ko. Their relationship stretches back to Ko’s emergency room surgeon days when she was one of his nurses. Tsai lost her district in Taichung by just 7,000ish votes.
Local elections in Taiwan are still surprisingly dependent on the ground game. As a new party with little resources, the TPP doesn’t have a strong organization and cannot really compete in this arena. Instead, the TPP has an incredibly vibrant and passionate online presence. This “Air Force” is priceless for moving the needle nationally, but for local elections, you still need that “ground force.”
The tough road to long-term survival
To become a real party with staying power, the TPP must navigate the dual challenges of maintaining its identity and expanding its influence beyond the charisma of its founder. And it must engage with its enthusiastic supporters not just online, but also the ground. Dialing down the drama quotient with regard to the messy alliances would also help. Somebody please get the TPP a copy of “The Power Broker” by Robert Caro.
Young people don’t want to support the KMT but they are very dissatisfied with the DPP. This, plus Ko’s star power, brought them this far. To go further, they’ll have to up their game.